#1Colin Chase

WR·Temple·2025

Colin Chase is a Versatile WR for Temple. Colin's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 70 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Colin Chase's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

69 Rush yards0 Rush TD12 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

40 Receptions414 Rec yards4 Rec TD10.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume31
Explosiveness22
Consistency57
Pass-Down62

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.31 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.52 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Charlotte (SP+ -27).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Malik Dunner	Ball State	2017	76	0.290	0.4	22.0
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Massachusetts	W42-10	-36.6	2	23	11.5	0	13	0.38
2	vsHoward	W55-7	—	2	20	10.0	1	12	1.10
3	vsOklahoma	L3-42	18.3	3	15	5.0	0	6	0.15
4	@Georgia Tech	L24-45	9.3	2	12	6.0	0	7	-0.29
6	vsUTSA	W27-21	3.7	5	43	8.6	0	15	0.16
7	vsNavy	L31-32	6.2	3	53	17.7	0	29	0.62
8	@Charlotte	W49-14	-26.7	1	11	11.0	1	11	2.52
9	@Tulsa	W38-37	-10.0	3	30	10.0	0	24	-0.28
10	vsEast Carolina	L14-45	8.0	5	57	11.4	0	19	0.60
11	@Army	L13-14	0.8	6	36	6.0	1	10	0.95
13	vsTulane	L13-37	6.3	5	59	11.8	1	30	0.12
14	@North Texas	L25-52	13.8	3	55	18.3	0	42	0.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

10.8%

Passing plays

18.9%

Rushing plays

3.6%

Standard downs

9.3%

Passing downs

14.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / -0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).