#14Xavier White

WR·Texas Tech·2021 20200.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Xavier White is a 2-year Versatile WR for Texas Tech. Xavier's 2020 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 85 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Xavier White's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

442 Rush yards2 Rush TD62 Carries7.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

21 Receptions104 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.0 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns17 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers

Efficiency33
Volume43
Explosiveness0
Consistency0
Pass-Down84

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Oklahoma State (SP+ 14).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Malik Dunner	Ball State	2017	76	0.290	0.4	22.0
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3
Luke McCaffrey	Nebraska	2020	62	0.300	0.7	18.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
4	vsTexas	L56-63	9.7	1	3	3.0	3	0.07
5	@Kansas State	L21-31	2.0	4	9	2.3	5	0.31
6	@Iowa State	L15-31	13.3	3	5	1.7	4	-0.55
8	vsWest Virginia	W34-27	8.5	2	5	2.5	4	-0.04
10	@TCU	L18-34	1.6	5	35	7.0	15	0.27
11	vsBaylor	W24-23	1.3	1	8	8.0	8	-0.24
13	@Oklahoma State	L44-50	14.2	1	11	11.0	11	0.57
14	vsKansas	W16-13	-16.3	4	28	7.0	14	-0.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.9%

Passing plays

7.5%

Rushing plays

24.4%

Standard downs

17.7%

Passing downs

8.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.04
Passing downs: 0.24
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.04 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Texas Tech	0.5	0.300	—	18.6
2021	Texas Tech	0.0	0.040	-0.26	2.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.