Christian McCaffrey is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Stanford. Christian's 2016 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 286 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Christian McCaffrey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2016 Production
Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency38
- Volume100
- Explosiveness66
- Consistency76
- Receiving72
Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.26 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.61 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs California (SP+ 2).
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.29
- Passing downs
- 0.11
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.29 / 0.25
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.