#5Christian McCaffrey

RB·Stanford·2016 20152.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Christian McCaffrey is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Stanford. Christian's 2015 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 373 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Christian McCaffrey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

2019 Rush yards8 Rush TD337 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

45 Receptions645 Rec yards5 Rec TD14.3 Yards/rec

Returns

37 Kick returns1070 KR yards1 KR TD15 Punt returns130 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Explosiveness60
Consistency75
Receiving71

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Iowa (SP+ 9).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Northwestern	L6-16	0.2	12	66	5.5	0	5	23	0	0.00
2	vsUCF	W31-7	-15.5	20	58	2.9	0	4	59	1	0.17
3	@USC	W41-31	16.8	26	115	4.4	0	3	37	0	0.22
4	@Oregon State	W42-24	-10.1	30	206	6.9	0	1	38	0	0.07
5	vsArizona	W55-17	4.7	17	156	9.2	1	2	11	0	0.43
7	vsUCLA	W56-35	18.6	25	243	9.7	4	1	4	0	0.61
8	vsWashington	W31-14	9.7	23	109	4.7	1	5	112	1	0.48
9	@Washington State	W30-28	4.2	22	107	4.9	0	4	26	0	-0.11
10	@Colorado	W42-10	-4.0	23	147	6.4	0	3	15	0	0.42
11	vsOregon	L36-38	15.9	33	147	4.5	1	5	42	0	0.08
12	vsCalifornia	W35-22	12.1	29	192	6.6	0	1	49	1	0.32
13	vsNotre Dame	W38-36	22.4	27	94	3.5	0	3	19	0	0.06
14	vsUSC	W41-22	16.8	32	207	6.5	1	4	105	1	0.46
1	vsIowa	W45-16	9.3	18	172	9.6	0	4	105	1	0.64

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

41.4%

Passing plays

16.1%

Rushing plays

57.1%

Standard downs

47.0%

Passing downs

26.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.91 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Stanford	2.4	0.220	—	75.2
2016	Stanford	3.7	0.330	+0.11	87.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.