#10Brandon Allen

QB·Arkansas·2015 20147.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brandon Allen is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Arkansas. Brandon's 2014 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 354 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brandon Allen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

190/339 Comp/Att2285 Pass yards20 Pass TD5 INT56.0% Comp %

Rushing

0 Rush yards2 Rush TD42 Carries0.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency59
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency59th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.43 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.43 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Nicholls.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Auburn	L21-45	24.2	18/31	175	2	1	45.7	6	0	0.13
2	vsNicholls	W73-7	—	4/5	117	4	0	100.0	—	—	2.43
3	@Texas Tech	W49-28	4.9	6/12	61	0	0	88.7	27	1	0.36
4	vsNorthern Illinois	W52-14	-0.6	15/22	199	2	0	66.4	1	1	0.82
5	vsTexas A&M	L28-35	20.2	15/27	199	1	0	37.2	-4	0	0.21
7	vsAlabama	L13-14	34.3	21/40	246	1	1	44.7	5	0	0.11
8	vsGeorgia	L32-45	27.6	28/45	296	3	2	29.9	-28	0	0.23
9	vsUAB	W45-17	-4.2	15/24	205	2	0	90.3	-12	0	0.54
10	@Mississippi State	L10-17	22.2	22/43	238	0	1	52.4	-3	0	0.10
12	vsLSU	W17-0	21.5	16/27	169	0	0	56.8	-7	0	0.18
13	vsOle Miss	W30-0	20.7	5/10	87	1	0	73.2	1	0	0.28
14	@Missouri	L14-21	19.3	13/30	133	2	0	30.3	1	0	0.13
1	vsTexas	W31-7	9.0	12/23	160	2	0	80.4	13	0	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

41.2%

Passing plays

94.3%

Rushing plays

6.1%

Standard downs

30.8%

Passing downs

62.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / -0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Arkansas	7.1	0.500	—	179.0
2015	Arkansas	14.9	0.740	+0.24	288.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.