Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
The last time these programs met, last September in Chapel Hill, TCU won 48-14. Almost nobody who did the damage will be in Dublin. Josh Hoover, who threw for…
On paper this is a marquee Big Ten road test, and we treat it like one — with a giant asterisk attached. The lean says Indiana, the recent track record says Oh…
The read on Oregon at Ohio State is almost stubbornly boring. These look like two of the best teams in the country, with Ohio State a hair ahead, the kind of g…
This is the rare championship matchup with no obvious favorite and no obvious flaw to attack. Indiana walks into Indianapolis 15-0 and ranked first in our powe…
Strip away the seeding and the storylines and you're left with a number that almost looks like a shrug: Notre Dame by the thinnest sliver at home, a game as cl…
Coming in, we made Georgia the better team here by about a touchdown — call it seven points. The oddsmakers barely had Georgia favored at all, more like a one-…
On paper, the bookmakers looked like the ones who blew it. Oregon got beat by 20, even though Vegas made them a small favorite, laying just 2.5 points. But her…
Two teams arrive in South Bend playing better than their reputations. Army carries an 11-1 record built on the option, ball control, and a defense that gives u…
This is one of those November games we can read with more confidence than usual. The number we're leaning on isn't a dusty preseason guess or a tidied-up final…
Nobody should fall in love with either of these teams, and the smart read is honest about that. Color it Colorado by about four in Lawrence — a hair under a to…
This isn't a summer guess and it isn't a final report card on the season. It's a read taken right now, in week 13, that starts with what we expected from each…
We walk into Columbus with a clear but careful opinion: Ohio State by a touchdown. Back the Buckeyes, expect them to win by a little less than seven, and call…
The lean is blunt: Ole Miss should win at Florida by about 15 points, and the Rebels figure to leave Gainesville with the win roughly four times out of five. T…
Vegas hung Miami (OH) as a 30.7-point favorite over Kent State, treating this like a wipe-the-floor mismatch. The smart read had it a lot closer — Miami the be…
The number told one story; San Diego State told another. The betting line had the Aztecs as roughly a 17-point underdog. The smart read pegged them closer to a…
Going in, the smart read was that the betting public had Tennessee pegged too low. The market made the Volunteers a big favorite, but our number on them was bi…
