Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
Texas Tech projects to nearly ten regular-season wins and Texas to eight and a half. Those are means, and the two win distributions overlap heavily, so on any given draw either can finish ahead. Across all 50,000 season…
Ohio State recruits the 2nd or 3rd best roster in the country almost every year. Nobody needs a model to know that, and a team full of five-stars is supposed t…
Ohio State recruits the 2nd or 3rd best roster in America almost every year. That part is not interesting; everyone knows it, and a team stacked with five-star…
A final score is one draw from a distribution. Two teams play, a few bounces go one way, and the number on the scoreboard becomes the thing everyone argues abo…
There is a version of every football argument that happens on Sunday and a version that happens in a spreadsheet, and they are almost never about the same play…
Trying to out-predict the betting market taught us something we did not enjoy learning: it almost doesn't matter which model you build. We built four that shar…
Here is a stat that does something most of our numbers can't: it tells you not who is good right now, but who is about to get better. The field-position gap —…
The distance between where a team recruits and how it actually plays can be jaw-dropping, and Army and Florida State are the perfect split-screen. Army signed…
Consider UCLA, which went 5-2 in one-score games but 0-5 in all other games. This disparity suggests that their overall record is propped up by close-game vari…
A handful of teams in 2024 were flat-out better than their records say. Washington is the clearest case. The Huskies finished 5-7 and stayed home for the holid…
In betting, the number you really have to beat is the one the market settles on right before kickoff, the last and sharpest price after all the smart money has…
