Maryland vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsWIS
- Q4 0:28WISLance Mason 13 Yd pass from Hunter Simmons (Nathanial Vakos Kick)27–10
- Q4 9:03MDShaleak Knotts 62 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)27–3
- Q3 10:12WISNathanial Vakos 33 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:00MDSean O'Haire 26 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 3:38MDSean O'Haire 49 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 13:47MDShaleak Knotts 9 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:22MDMalik Washington 1 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MD did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.6
- PassMalik Washington 18/34, 265 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDeJuan Williams 15 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecOctavian Smith Jr. 6 REC, 113 YDS
- PassDanny O'Neil 14/22, 120 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDarrion Dupree 14 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecTrech Kekahuna 5 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:22MD +19%
Malik Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q2 13:47MD +18%
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 9 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q2 3:38MD +10%
Sean O'Haire 49 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00MD +6%
Sean O'Haire 26 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Wisconsin?
Maryland 27, Wisconsin 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 296 |
| 265 | Passing yards | 235 |
| 61 | Rushing yards | 61 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 3-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 22:53 | Possession | 37:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 MD field goal on 4th & 1 at WIS 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:28WISLance Mason 13 Yd pass from Hunter Simmons (Nathanial Vakos Kick)27–10
- Q4 9:03MDShaleak Knotts 62 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)27–3
- Q3 10:12WISNathanial Vakos 33 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:00MDSean O'Haire 26 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 3:38MDSean O'Haire 49 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 13:47MDShaleak Knotts 9 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:22MDMalik Washington 1 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1591, MD Elo 1526 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -5 (64% to win) — 5.5 points clear of MD's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #30 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| MD | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 (#75) | CORE overall | -3.3 (#72) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -11 / -8 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 1.23 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →