Florida State vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:56FLAJadan Baugh 12 Yd Run (Trey Smack PAT failed)21–40
- Q4 3:07FSULawayne McCoy 17 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)21–34
- Q4 7:38FLATrey Smack 54 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q3 2:55FLAJ. Baugh run for 22 yds, for a TD (T. Smack KICK)14–31
- Q3 9:47FLAHayden Hansen 3 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:11FSUT. Castellanos run for 4 yds, for a TD (J. Weinberg KICK)14–17
- Q2 5:38FLATony Livingston 9 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–17
- Q2 13:39FSUMicahi Danzy 13 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:49FLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 5 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:25FLATrey Smack 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassThomas Castellanos 17/28, 240 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushThomas Castellanos 19 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLawayne McCoy 6 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDJ Lagway 15/24, 168 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 38 CAR, 266 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJ. Michael Sturdivant 3 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:47FLA +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #89 H.Hansen caught at FSU00, for 3 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 13:03FSU +11%
#43 M.Chiumento punt 38 yards to the FLA45 #8 V.Brown III return 0 yards to the FLA45 (#3 E.Joseph)
- Q3 2:55FLA +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 22 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 10:52FLA +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 20 yards gain to the FSU20 (#0 E.Little Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 6:21FLA +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU48 (#28 J.Cryer; #93 M.Desir) PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FSU49 to FSU44, 1ST DOW…
- Q3 12:37FSU +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU31 (#15 J.Woods; #88 C.Banks), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Florida?
Florida State 21, Florida 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FLA) was correct.
| FSU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 407 | Total yards | 440 |
| 240 | Passing yards | 168 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 272 |
| 24 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 15/24 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 25:18 | Possession | 34:42 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:40 FLA go for it on 4th & 10 at FLA 23. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:56FLAJadan Baugh 12 Yd Run (Trey Smack PAT failed)21–40
- Q4 3:07FSULawayne McCoy 17 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)21–34
- Q4 7:38FLATrey Smack 54 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q3 2:55FLAJ. Baugh run for 22 yds, for a TD (T. Smack KICK)14–31
- Q3 9:47FLAHayden Hansen 3 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:11FSUT. Castellanos run for 4 yds, for a TD (J. Weinberg KICK)14–17
- Q2 5:38FLATony Livingston 9 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–17
- Q2 13:39FSUMicahi Danzy 13 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:49FLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 5 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:25FLATrey Smack 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1543, FSU Elo 1606 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +0.1 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #111 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Florida leads 39–29–2 · Florida has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| FSU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#29) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#59) |
| +13 / -1 | offense / defense | +0 / -3 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →