Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VANTeam statsSC
- Q4 5:29VANSedrick Alexander 2 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)31–7
- Q4 9:31VANBrock Taylor 51 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 10:48VANJamezell Lassiter 44 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)21–7
- Q2 1:56VANJunior Sherrill 5 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:58SCRahsul Faison 7 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:33VANSedrick Alexander 18 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDiego Pavia 18/25, 177 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJamezell Lassiter 1 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Stowers 3 REC, 45 YDS
- PassLuke Doty 18/27, 148 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRahsul Faison 15 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNyck Harbor 4 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:56VAN +24%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q3 10:48VAN +21%
Jamezell Lassiter run for 44 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q1 5:58SC +18%
Rahsul Faison run for 7 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
- Q1 9:33VAN +18%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q3 4:07VAN +8%
Shotgun Pavia,Diego rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC26 (Okoronkwo,Justin) PENALTY VAN Personal Foul (Hight,Martel) 15 yards from USC31 to USC46. NO PLAY
- Q4 9:31VAN +7%
Brock Taylor 51 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina?
Vanderbilt 31, South Carolina 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VAN | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 323 | Total yards | 328 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 146 | Rushing yards | 86 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 8-85 |
| 35:43 | Possession | 24:17 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:08 SC punt on 4th & 1 at SC 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:29VANSedrick Alexander 2 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)31–7
- Q4 9:31VANBrock Taylor 51 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 10:48VANJamezell Lassiter 44 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)21–7
- Q2 1:56VANJunior Sherrill 5 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:58SCRahsul Faison 7 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:33VANSedrick Alexander 18 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1729, VAN Elo 1570 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC -8.8 (73% to win) — 5.8 points clear of SC's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #91 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #10 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →South Carolina leads 30–5 · 34% have been one-possession games
| VAN | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +25.4 (#8) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#53) |
| +28 / +2 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 3.85 | points / drive | 1.48 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →