Texas Tech vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsWSU
- Q4 5:57WSUDean Janikowski 25 Yd Field Goal 16–37
- Q4 9:21TTUCameron Dickey 12 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–34
- Q3 3:13WSUDjouvensky Schlenbaker 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)10–34
- Q2 0:25WSUKyle Williams 21 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski PAT failed)10–27
- Q2 5:33TTUJohncarlos Miller II 20 Yd pass from Coy Eakin (Gino Garcia Kick)10–21
- Q2 7:53WSUDjouvensky Schlenbaker 2 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)3–21
- Q2 8:09WSUWayshawn Parker 43 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:31TTUGino Garcia 37 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:03WSUJohn Mateer 4 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassBehren Morton 34/58, 323 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushCameran Brown 5 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecJosh Kelly 9 REC, 95 YDS
- PassJohn Mateer 9/19, 115 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJohn Mateer 21 CAR, 197 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoshua Meredith 2 REC, 54 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:09WSU +20%
Wayshawn Parker run for 43 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q1 10:03WSU +17%
John Mateer run for 4 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q2 7:53WSU +12%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 2 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q2 5:33TTU +11%
Coy Eakin pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 20 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
- Q2 0:25WSU +8%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski PAT MISSED)
- Q1 3:31TTU +7%
Gino Garcia 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Washington State?
Texas Tech 16, Washington State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
| TTU | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 491 | Total yards | 416 |
| 343 | Passing yards | 115 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 301 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 35/60 | Comp/Att | 9/19 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-80 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 29:52 | Possession | 30:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 TTU go for it on 4th & 9 at TTU 31. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:57WSUDean Janikowski 25 Yd Field Goal 16–37
- Q4 9:21TTUCameron Dickey 12 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–34
- Q3 3:13WSUDjouvensky Schlenbaker 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)10–34
- Q2 0:25WSUKyle Williams 21 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski PAT failed)10–27
- Q2 5:33TTUJohncarlos Miller II 20 Yd pass from Coy Eakin (Gino Garcia Kick)10–21
- Q2 7:53WSUDjouvensky Schlenbaker 2 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)3–21
- Q2 8:09WSUWayshawn Parker 43 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:31TTUGino Garcia 37 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:03WSUJohn Mateer 4 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1530, TTU Elo 1541 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU -2 (56% to win) — 3.0 points clear of WSU's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #100 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| TTU | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.0 (#56) | CORE overall | -2.8 (#77) |
| +3 / +0 | offense / defense | +4 / +7 |
| 2.84 | points / drive | 3.07 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →