#3Josh Kelly

WR·Texas Tech·2024

Josh Kelly is a Slot Specialist WR for Texas Tech. Josh's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 82 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Kelly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

89 Receptions1023 Rec yards5 Rec TD11.5 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Punt returns29 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume27
Explosiveness30
Consistency77
Pass-Down91

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.58 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 3.32 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs North Texas (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsAbilene Christian	W52-51	—	10	156	15.6	1	35	1.76
2	@Washington State	L16-37	1.3	9	95	10.6	0	37	0.82
3	vsNorth Texas	W66-21	-4.5	2	36	18.0	1	26	3.32
4	vsArizona State	W30-22	9.4	10	89	8.9	1	20	1.12
5	vsCincinnati	W44-41	-0.1	8	111	13.9	0	29	1.36
6	@Arizona	W28-22	-2.8	5	27	5.4	0	12	0.22
8	vsBaylor	L35-59	8.4	9	76	8.4	0	32	0.92
9	@TCU	L34-35	10.8	7	19	2.7	0	9	-0.14
10	@Iowa State	W23-22	10.3	8	127	15.9	2	35	1.97
11	vsColorado	L27-41	8.1	8	106	13.3	0	35	0.80
13	@Oklahoma State	W56-48	-2.6	4	31	7.8	0	14	0.48
14	vsWest Virginia	W52-15	2.1	9	150	16.7	0	41	1.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.4%

Passing plays

16.6%

Rushing plays

0.5%

Standard downs

7.6%

Passing downs

13.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.93
Passing downs: 1.18
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.08 / -0.48

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).