Murray State vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Murray State

00

Missouri

▸0051

Final

Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MURR	0	0	0	0	0
MIZ	28	7	10	6	51

MURRTeam statsMIZ

85Total yards489

27Pass310

58Rush179

5First downs30

4-153rd down8-13

2Turnovers1

26:46Possession33:14

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:57MIZBlake Craig 27 Yd Field Goal 0–51
• Q4 13:34MIZBlake Craig 22 Yd Field Goal 0–48
• Q3 7:09MIZJamal Roberts 2 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–45
• Q3 8:50MIZBlake Craig 39 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 0:01MIZBrady Cook 3 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–35
• Q1 3:38MIZMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–28
• Q1 9:41MIZToriano Pride Jr. 25 Yd Interception Return (Blake Craig Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:48MIZNate Noel 9 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:42MIZLuther Burden III 16 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Blake Craig Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MIZ −50.5

Against the number

MIZ covered

line MIZ −50.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MIZ 100%50%MURR 100%

Kickoff151 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MIZ (top)MURR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MIZ 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MIZ −50.5

Closing total

62.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MURR 0 – 51 MIZ

Leaders

Murray State

• PassJayden Johannsen 7/13, 27 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJawaun Northington 7 CAR, 25 YDS
• RecJoshua Crabtree 2 REC, 14 YDS

Missouri

• PassBrady Cook 20/31, 228 YDS, 1 TD
• RushNate Noel 11 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
• RecLuther Burden III 4 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

129

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MIZ up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 101 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MIZ went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs Stanford56-10WRice vs Texas Southern59-7WOregon vs Hawai'i55-10WDelaware vs Towson51-13WTexas vs Colorado State52-0

Fourth downs

14 calls

MURR gave up 0.5 points to the model on fourth down.MURR 6/9 · MIZ 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Murray State vs. Missouri?

Murray State 0, Missouri 51.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MURR

MIZ

24%

Success rate

56%

-0.75

EPA / pass

0.35

-0.21

EPA / rush

0.28

24%

Early-down success

55%

24%

Pass success

51%

24%

Rush success

61%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

36%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

34%

Pass rate

52%

5.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.4

MURR

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

MIZ

5.4 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MURR		MIZ
85	Total yards	489
27	Passing yards	310
58	Rushing yards	179
5	First downs	30
4-15	3rd down	8-13
0-1	4th down	0-0
7/15	Comp/Att	30/42
1.8	Yards per pass	7.4
1.7	Yards per rush	5.0
2	Turnovers	1
6-52	Penalties	7-44
26:46	Possession	33:14

Fourth downs

14 calls

MURR

6/9 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

MIZ

3/4 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 5:42 MURR punt on 4th & 2 at MURR 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MURR 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MIZ 8/11 scoring drives

MIZTD6 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q1

MURRDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

MIZTD3 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q1

MURRTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

MURRPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1

MIZTD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1

MIZFUM5 pl, 24 yds· own 41Q1

MURRPUNT2 pl, 1 yds· own 40Q2

MIZPUNT4 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q2

MURRPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 30Q2

MIZPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 30Q2

MURRPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 10Q2

MIZTD14 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2

MURREND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

MURRPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 35Q3

MIZFG9 pl, 76 yds· own 2Q3

MURRFUM3 pl, -15 yds· own 25Q3

MIZTD2 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q3

MURRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3

MIZFG14 pl, 76 yds· own 19Q3

MURRPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q4

MIZFG12 pl, 84 yds· own 7Q4

MURREND6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:57MIZBlake Craig 27 Yd Field Goal 0–51
• Q4 13:34MIZBlake Craig 22 Yd Field Goal 0–48
• Q3 7:09MIZJamal Roberts 2 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–45
• Q3 8:50MIZBlake Craig 39 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 0:01MIZBrady Cook 3 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–35
• Q1 3:38MIZMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–28
• Q1 9:41MIZToriano Pride Jr. 25 Yd Interception Return (Blake Craig Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:48MIZNate Noel 9 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:42MIZLuther Burden III 16 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Blake Craig Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →