Stanford vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsUSC
- Q4 0:58USCMiller Moss 15 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)10–56
- Q4 3:35STANJustin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:10USCLake McRee 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)3–49
- Q2 6:46USCBrenden Rice 75 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)3–42
- Q2 6:57STANJoshua Karty 38 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q2 10:42USCDorian Singer 19 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)0–35
- Q2 13:43USCZachariah Branch 75 Yd Punt Return (Denis Lynch Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:07USCAustin Jones 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:05USCMarShawn Lloyd 5 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:59USCCaleb Williams 21 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJustin Lamson 8/18, 121 YDS
- RushCasey Filkins 5 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecBen Yurosek 4 REC, 54 YDS
- PassCaleb Williams 19/21, 281 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMarShawn Lloyd 9 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrenden Rice 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 100 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:59USC +6%
Caleb Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. USC?
Stanford 10, USC 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| STAN | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 349 | Total yards | 573 |
| 140 | Passing yards | 393 |
| 209 | Rushing yards | 180 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/25 | Comp/Att | 30/36 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 8-85 |
| 32:08 | Possession | 27:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:42 STAN punt on 4th & 2 at STAN 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:58USCMiller Moss 15 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)10–56
- Q4 3:35STANJustin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:10USCLake McRee 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)3–49
- Q2 6:46USCBrenden Rice 75 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)3–42
- Q2 6:57STANJoshua Karty 38 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q2 10:42USCDorian Singer 19 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)0–35
- Q2 13:43USCZachariah Branch 75 Yd Punt Return (Denis Lynch Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:07USCAustin Jones 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:05USCMarShawn Lloyd 5 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:59USCCaleb Williams 21 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1817, STAN Elo 1345 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -21.3 (91% to win) — 7.2 points clear of STAN's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUSC leads 66–33–3 · USC has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| STAN | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.4 (#110) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#27) |
| -7 / +8 | offense / defense | +20 / +6 |
| 1.84 | points / drive | 3.35 |
| 3.35 | allowed / drive | 2.57 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →