#8Nate Noel

RB·Missouri·2024

Nate Noel is a Committee Back for Missouri. Nate's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 166 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nate Noel's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

818 Rush yards3 Rush TD163 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions44 Rec yards0 Rec TD2.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume65
Explosiveness40
Consistency0
Receiving35

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsMurray State	W51-0	—	11	48	4.4	1	4	20	0	0.30
2	vsBuffalo	W38-0	-4.0	12	73	6.1	1	4	-3	0	0.10
3	vsBoston College	W27-21	1.2	22	121	5.5	0	1	9	0	0.03
4	vsVanderbilt	W30-27	4.9	24	199	8.3	0	3	8	0	0.24
6	@Texas A&M	L10-41	17.0	10	30	3.0	0	2	11	0	-0.17
8	vsAuburn	W21-17	9.5	6	32	5.3	0	—	—	—	0.14
11	vsOklahoma	W30-23	9.5	10	31	3.1	0	—	—	—	-0.14
12	@South Carolina	L30-34	16.9	27	150	5.6	1	1	-1	0	0.29
13	@Mississippi State	W39-20	-4.1	25	95	3.8	0	—	—	—	-0.07
14	vsArkansas	W28-21	11.0	10	25	2.5	0	—	—	—	-0.30
20	vsIowa	W27-24	15.8	6	14	2.3	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.6%

Passing plays

4.3%

Rushing plays

38.9%

Standard downs

26.3%

Passing downs

14.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.05
Passing downs: 0.24
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.26 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).