Louisville vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LOUTeam statsSYR
- Q4 8:40SYRGarrett Shrader 6 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–31
- Q4 13:02SYROronde Gadsden II 8 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:25SYRSean Tucker 4 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:10LOUTiyon Evans 36 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:01SYRSean Tucker 55 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:46SYRAndre Szmyt 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMalik Cunningham 16/22, 152 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTiyon Evans 13 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Hudson 8 REC, 102 YDS
- PassGarrett Shrader 18/25, 236 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSean Tucker 21 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSean Tucker 6 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSYR up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:25SYR +21%
Sean Tucker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
- Q1 5:01SYR +19%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 55 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
- Q1 1:10LOU +18%
Tiyon Evans run for 36 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
- Q3 7:23SYR +10%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 18
- Q3 2:37SYR +10%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 20
- Q4 13:02SYR +9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisville vs. Syracuse?
Louisville 7, Syracuse 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LOU | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 334 | Total yards | 449 |
| 197 | Passing yards | 241 |
| 137 | Rushing yards | 208 |
| 15 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/23 | Comp/Att | 19/26 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 18-107 |
| 27:29 | Possession | 32:31 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:37 SYR punt on 4th & 3 at SYR 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:40SYRGarrett Shrader 6 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–31
- Q4 13:02SYROronde Gadsden II 8 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:25SYRSean Tucker 4 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:10LOUTiyon Evans 36 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:01SYRSean Tucker 55 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:46SYRAndre Szmyt 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1405, LOU Elo 1568 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR +4.1 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #76 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Louisville leads 13–8 · 24% have been one-possession games
| LOU | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.6 (#20) | CORE overall | +2.7 (#59) |
| +4 / -10 | offense / defense | +3 / -0 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.02 |
| 1.48 | allowed / drive | 2.04 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →