#6Garrett Shrader

QB·Syracuse·2023

Garrett Shrader is a Dual-Threat QB for Syracuse. Garrett's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 312 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Garrett Shrader's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

134/214 Comp/Att1691 Pass yards13 Pass TD6 INT62.6% Comp %

Rushing

460 Rush yards8 Rush TD114 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency70
Clutch97

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.18 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.71 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Georgia Tech (SP+ 0).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsColgate	W65-0	—	18/24	257	4	1	69.8	40	0	0.81
2	vsWestern Michigan	W48-7	-15.9	19/30	286	1	0	89.3	31	1	0.56
3	@Purdue	W35-20	-7.3	14/28	184	0	1	83.5	195	4	0.34
4	vsArmy	W29-16	-4.0	21/26	245	1	1	76.9	50	1	0.48
5	vsClemson	L14-31	10.5	15/29	181	2	1	39.2	24	0	0.01
6	@North Carolina	L7-40	7.4	15/21	124	0	1	37.9	28	0	0.08
7	@Florida State	L3-41	19.4	9/21	99	0	0	19.1	-10	0	0.03
9	@Virginia Tech	L10-38	5.8	12/18	137	1	0	11.7	-42	0	0.15
11	vsPittsburgh	W28-13	-7.3	1/2	5	1	0	91.4	96	1	0.19
12	@Georgia Tech	L22-31	0.3	—	—	—	—	—	2	0	1.71
13	vsWake Forest	W35-31	-7.9	10/15	173	3	1	96.9	46	1	1.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

44.8%

Passing plays

80.2%

Rushing plays

21.0%

Standard downs

40.4%

Passing downs

54.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).