Arizona vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 13:02ARIZDJ Williams 10 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)38–20
- Q3 3:36SDSUJack Browning 23 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 7:46SDSUJaylon Armstead 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jack Browning Kick)31–17
- Q3 12:40ARIZJacob Cowing 25 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)31–10
- Q2 0:28ARIZJacob Cowing 4 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)24–10
- Q2 4:49SDSUTyrell Shavers 11 Yd pass from Braxton Burmeister (Jack Browning Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:19ARIZTetairoa McMillan 6 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)17–3
- Q2 13:31SDSUJack Browning 44 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 3:19ARIZJacob Cowing 17 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:06ARIZTyler Loop 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJayden de Laura 22/35, 299 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushD.J. Williams 14 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob Cowing 8 REC, 152 YDS, 3 TD
- PassBraxton Burmeister 5/10, 51 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Davis 8 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecKenan Christon II 2 REC, 19 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:28ARIZ +23%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q2 10:19ARIZ +22%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q1 3:19ARIZ +20%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q2 4:49SDSU +19%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)
- Q4 15:00ARIZ +15%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete
- Q3 12:40ARIZ +15%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. San Diego State?
Arizona 38, San Diego State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARIZ | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 461 | Total yards | 232 |
| 299 | Passing yards | 62 |
| 162 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 25 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/35 | Comp/Att | 7/16 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 6-37 |
| 32:37 | Possession | 27:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:51 SDSU go for it on 4th & 14 at ARIZ 27. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:02ARIZDJ Williams 10 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)38–20
- Q3 3:36SDSUJack Browning 23 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 7:46SDSUJaylon Armstead 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jack Browning Kick)31–17
- Q3 12:40ARIZJacob Cowing 25 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)31–10
- Q2 0:28ARIZJacob Cowing 4 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)24–10
- Q2 4:49SDSUTyrell Shavers 11 Yd pass from Braxton Burmeister (Jack Browning Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:19ARIZTetairoa McMillan 6 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)17–3
- Q2 13:31SDSUJack Browning 44 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 3:19ARIZJacob Cowing 17 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:06ARIZTyler Loop 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1535, ARIZ Elo 1306 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -11.6 (78% to win) — 5.6 points clear of SDSU's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #73 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Arizona leads 9–6 · 47% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 (#76) | CORE overall | -2.0 (#72) |
| +10 / +13 | offense / defense | -7 / -5 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 1.61 |
| 3.41 | allowed / drive | 1.77 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →