Rutgers vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RUTGTeam statsIU
- Q4 7:00RUTGNoah Vedral 9 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)38–3
- Q3 0:32RUTGRaiqwon O'Neal 7 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)31–3
- Q3 12:27RUTGAaron Young 10 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:02IUCharles Campbell 47 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 14:10RUTGValentino Ambrosio 38 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 3:21RUTGIsaih Pacheco 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:47RUTGIsaih Pacheco 8 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- IU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and RUTG did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassNoah Vedral 9/17, 97 YDS
- RushIsiah Pacheco 21 CAR, 79 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBo Melton 5 REC, 50 YDS
- PassDonaven McCulley 7/20, 98 YDS
- RushCharlie Spegal 5 CAR, 14 YDS
- RecTy Fryfogle 5 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRUTG up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:21RUTG +20%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
- Q1 13:47RUTG +17%
Isaih Pacheco run for 8 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
- Q3 12:27RUTG +12%
Aaron Young run for 10 yds for a TD
- Q2 14:10RUTG +7%
Valentino Ambrosio 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:35RUTG +6%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds
- Q2 0:02IU +6%
Charles Campbell 47 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Rutgers vs. Indiana?
Rutgers 38, Indiana 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked IU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| RUTG | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total yards | 259 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 218 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 1-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 10/19 | Comp/Att | 18/42 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 32:09 | Possession | 27:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:45 RUTG punt on 4th & 1 at RUTG 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:00RUTGNoah Vedral 9 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)38–3
- Q3 0:32RUTGRaiqwon O'Neal 7 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)31–3
- Q3 12:27RUTGAaron Young 10 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:02IUCharles Campbell 47 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 14:10RUTGValentino Ambrosio 38 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 3:21RUTGIsaih Pacheco 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:47RUTGIsaih Pacheco 8 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1449, RUTG Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU -7.4 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #71 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →The series is level at 5–5 · Rutgers has won 3 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| RUTG | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.9 (#111) | CORE overall | -13.5 (#103) |
| -17 / +2 | offense / defense | -14 / -1 |
| 1.35 | points / drive | 0.98 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →