Minnesota vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsMD
- Q4 1:08MINNAntoine Winfield Jr. 82 Yd Interception Return (Emmit Carpenter Kick)31–10
- Q4 5:42MDD.J. Moore 11 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Adam Greene Kick)24–10
- Q4 9:30MINNRodney Smith 70 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)24–3
- Q4 11:15MDAdam Greene 32 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q3 8:21MINNEmmit Carpenter 37 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 0:14MINNShannon Brooks 17 Yd pass from Conor Rhoda (Emmit Carpenter Kick)14–0
- Q2 13:27MINNRodney Smith 8 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MINN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.9
- PassConor Rhoda 7/15, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRodney Smith 18 CAR, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRashad Still 1 REC, 26 YDS
- PassTyrrell Pigrome 18/37, 161 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTyrrell Pigrome 25 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecLevern Jacobs 10 REC, 82 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:27MINN +20%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q2 0:14MINN +16%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 17 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q3 8:21MINN +6%
Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Maryland?
Minnesota 31, Maryland 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MINN | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 311 | Total yards | 291 |
| 82 | Passing yards | 161 |
| 229 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 16 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 7/15 | Comp/Att | 18/37 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 34:12 | Possession | 25:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:48 MINN punt on 4th & 4 at MD 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:08MINNAntoine Winfield Jr. 82 Yd Interception Return (Emmit Carpenter Kick)31–10
- Q4 5:42MDD.J. Moore 11 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Adam Greene Kick)24–10
- Q4 9:30MINNRodney Smith 70 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)24–3
- Q4 11:15MDAdam Greene 32 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q3 8:21MINNEmmit Carpenter 37 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 0:14MINNShannon Brooks 17 Yd pass from Conor Rhoda (Emmit Carpenter Kick)14–0
- Q2 13:27MINNRodney Smith 8 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1488, MINN Elo 1548 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD PK (51% to win) — 3.0 points clear of MINN's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #102 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →The series is level at 4–4 · Minnesota has won 2 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| MINN | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.8 (#51) | CORE overall | -5.3 (#87) |
| -6 / -10 | offense / defense | +1 / +6 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →