Nevada vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 2:31NEVJames Butler 13 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)45–10
- Q4 11:02NEVJames Butler 3 Yd Run (Ty Gangi Pass to Hasaan Henderson for Two-Point Conversion)38–10
- Q3 9:16NEVSpencer Pettit 38 Yd Field Goal 30–10
- Q2 0:00UNLVEvan Pantels 47 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 2:05NEVJames Butler 14 Yd pass from Ty Gangi (Spencer Pettit Kick)27–7
- Q2 6:58NEVSpencer Pettit 32 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 12:22UNLVKurt Palandech 27 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:50NEVJames Butler 33 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)17–0
- Q1 7:14NEVSpencer Pettit 25 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 10:48NEVTy Gangi 19 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTy Gangi 15/22, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJames Butler 32 CAR, 196 YDS, 3 TD
- RecWyatt Demps 2 REC, 57 YDS
- PassKurt Palandech 9/22, 121 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKurt Palandech 14 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrevor Kanteman 2 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEV up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:48NEV +18%
Ty Gangi run for 19 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
- Q2 14:50NEV +14%
James Butler run for 33 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
- Q2 12:22UNLV +13%
Kurt Palandech run for 27 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
- Q2 2:05NEV +10%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
- Q1 7:14NEV +7%
Spencer Pettit 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 6:58NEV +7%
Spencer Pettit 32 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. UNLV?
Nevada 45, UNLV 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NEV | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 511 | Total yards | 303 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 121 |
| 318 | Rushing yards | 182 |
| 27 | First downs | 14 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 9/22 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-14 | Penalties | 1-3 |
| 37:42 | Possession | 22:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:55 UNLV punt on 4th & 1 at UNLV 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:31NEVJames Butler 13 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)45–10
- Q4 11:02NEVJames Butler 3 Yd Run (Ty Gangi Pass to Hasaan Henderson for Two-Point Conversion)38–10
- Q3 9:16NEVSpencer Pettit 38 Yd Field Goal 30–10
- Q2 0:00UNLVEvan Pantels 47 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 2:05NEVJames Butler 14 Yd pass from Ty Gangi (Spencer Pettit Kick)27–7
- Q2 6:58NEVSpencer Pettit 32 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 12:22UNLVKurt Palandech 27 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:50NEVJames Butler 33 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)17–0
- Q1 7:14NEVSpencer Pettit 25 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 10:48NEVTy Gangi 19 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1217, NEV Elo 1263 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -0.6 (53% to win) — 7.9 points clear of NEV's market line of -8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #78 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Nevada leads 25–17 · UNLV has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NEV | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.1 (#111) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#105) |
| -4 / +13 | offense / defense | -2 / +12 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.70 | allowed / drive | 3.02 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →