NC State vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsUNC
- Q4 1:48UNCQuinshad Davis 13 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Thomas Moore Kick)35–7
- Q4 11:18NCSUTyler Purvis 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Niklas Sade Kick)35–0
- Q3 4:21NCSUTyler Purvis 3 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Niklas Sade Kick)28–0
- Q2 4:44NCSUShadrach Thornton 4 Yd Run (Niklas Sade Kick)21–0
- Q2 9:52NCSUDavid Grinnage 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Niklas Sade Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:02NCSUJacoby Brissett 17 Yd Run (Niklas Sade Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NCSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 4.2
- PassJacoby Brissett 9/11, 66 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJacoby Brissett 14 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBo Hines 2 REC, 24 YDS
- PassMarquise Williams 11/22, 97 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRomar Morris 4 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecBug Howard 4 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:52NCSU +22%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 2 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
- Q1 11:02NCSU +18%
Jacoby Brissett run for 17 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
- Q2 4:44NCSU +15%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
- Q2 6:46NCSU +5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. North Carolina?
NC State 35, North Carolina 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NCSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 207 |
| 66 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 388 | Rushing yards | 30 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 9/11 | Comp/Att | 17/35 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 1.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-81 | Penalties | 6-49 |
| 38:49 | Possession | 21:11 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:09 NCSU punt on 4th & 1 at NCSU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:48UNCQuinshad Davis 13 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Thomas Moore Kick)35–7
- Q4 11:18NCSUTyler Purvis 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Niklas Sade Kick)35–0
- Q3 4:21NCSUTyler Purvis 3 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Niklas Sade Kick)28–0
- Q2 4:44NCSUShadrach Thornton 4 Yd Run (Niklas Sade Kick)21–0
- Q2 9:52NCSUDavid Grinnage 2 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Niklas Sade Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:02NCSUJacoby Brissett 17 Yd Run (Niklas Sade Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1618, NCSU Elo 1444 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -9.4 (74% to win) — 2.9 points clear of UNC's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #68 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →North Carolina leads 60–41–5 · NC State has won 5 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| NCSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.53 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 2.39 | allowed / drive | 3.01 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →