Memphis vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsCIN
- Q3 3:00MEMPaxton Lynch 10 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)41–14
- Q3 7:20MEMSam Craft 6 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)34–14
- Q3 10:49CINRod Moore 5 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)27–14
- Q2 8:19MEMJake Elliott 20 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q1 1:06MEMPaxton Lynch 10 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)24–7
- Q1 6:10MEMJake Elliott 20 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 10:38MEMAdrian Henderson 29 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:44MEMTevin Jones 9 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:43CINMekale McKay 80 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassPaxton Lynch 18/25, 311 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSam Craft 38 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAdrian Henderson 3 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGunner Kiel 11/27, 216 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRodriguez Moore 14 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMekale McKay 2 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:06MEM +19%
Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q1 10:38MEM +17%
Adrian Henderson 29 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick), (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q3 7:20MEM +15%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q3 10:49CIN +14%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
- Q2 8:19MEM +14%
Jake Elliott 20 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 12:44MEM +12%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Cincinnati?
Memphis 41, Cincinnati 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MEM | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 610 | Total yards | 352 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 299 | Rushing yards | 97 |
| 30 | First downs | 19 |
| 12-21 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 16/40 |
| 12.4 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-72 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 40:39 | Possession | 18:36 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:00 MEM punt on 4th & 2 at CIN 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 3:00MEMPaxton Lynch 10 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)41–14
- Q3 7:20MEMSam Craft 6 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)34–14
- Q3 10:49CINRod Moore 5 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)27–14
- Q2 8:19MEMJake Elliott 20 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q1 1:06MEMPaxton Lynch 10 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)24–7
- Q1 6:10MEMJake Elliott 20 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 10:38MEMAdrian Henderson 29 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:44MEMTevin Jones 9 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:43CINMekale McKay 80 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1609, MEM Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -11.5 (78% to win) — 7.5 points clear of CIN's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #64 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Memphis leads 23–14 · 38% have been one-possession games
| MEM | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.14 | points / drive | 2.49 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 22% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →