Southern Utah vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Southern Utah

▸0022

South Alabama

0021

Final

Ladd Peebles StadiumNeutral site

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	10	0	3	9	22
USA	0	7	7	7	21

SOUTTeam statsUSA

317Total yards335

183Pass148

134Rush187

14First downs16

5-153rd down5-14

0Turnovers1

33:45Possession26:15

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH 28 yard field goal GOOD.22–21
• Q4 6:13SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH pass complete for a touchdown.19–21
• Q4 14:47USASOUTH ALABAMA Extra point GOOD.13–21
• Q4 14:47USASOUTH ALABAMA pass complete for a touchdown.13–20
• Q3 7:38USASOUTH ALABAMA Extra point GOOD.13–14
• Q3 7:38USASOUTH ALABAMA Extra point GOOD.13–14
• Q3 7:38USASOUTH ALABAMA pass complete for a touchdown.13–13
• Q3 11:15SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH 37 yard field goal GOOD.13–7
• Q1 1:16SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH Extra point GOOD.10–0
• Q1 1:16SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH rush for a touchdown.10–0
• Q1 5:52SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH 33 yard field goal GOOD.3–0

How the model called it

Market line

USA −41

Against the number

SOUT covered

line USA −41

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT aheadUSA ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SOUT ahead, below = USA ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

USA −41

Closing total

—

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 22 – 21 USA

consensus, liveUSA −41

Leaders

Southern Utah

• PassAaron Cantu 13/24, 183 YDS, 1 TD
• RushRaysean Martin 23 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
• RecGriff McNabb 4 REC, 77 YDS

South Alabama

• PassRoss Metheny 12/17, 112 YDS, 2 TD
• RushJay Jones 9 CAR, 92 YDS
• RecDanny Woodson 3 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

128

Points / snap

0.34

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

USA up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

53%

USA went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LDavidson vs VMI7-12WNorth Alabama vs Chattanooga41-27WAlabama State vs Southern28-20WUCLA vs Coastal Carolina27-13LBoise State vs UCF22-24

Fourth downs

15 calls

SOUT gave up 2.1 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 5/8 · USA 5/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Southern Utah vs. South Alabama?

Southern Utah 22, South Alabama 21.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

USA

33%

Success rate

40%

0.33

EPA / pass

0.15

0.17

EPA / rush

-0.06

30%

Early-down success

42%

39%

Pass success

42%

30%

Rush success

38%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

5%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

27%

41%

Pass rate

48%

9.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

9.2

SOUT

9.0 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

USA

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		USA
317	Total yards	335
183	Passing yards	148
134	Rushing yards	187
14	First downs	16
5-15	3rd down	5-14
1-1	4th down	0-0
13/24	Comp/Att	18/28
7.6	Yards per pass	5.3
3.4	Yards per rush	5.5
0	Turnovers	1
5-35	Penalties	7-60
33:45	Possession	26:15

Fourth downs

15 calls

SOUT

5/8 with the model

−2.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

USA

5/7 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 5:52 SOUT field goal on 4th & 1 at USA 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →USA 1/12 scoring drives

USAPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTFG GOOD12 pl, 61 yds· own 23Q1

USAFG MISS9 pl, 28 yds· own 48Q1

SOUTTD3 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

USAPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 11Q2

USAFG MISS6 pl, 24 yds· opp 43Q2

SOUTPUNT7 pl, 0 yds· own 44Q2

USATD6 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2

USAEND3 pl, 0 yds· own 5Q2

SOUTFG GOOD10 pl, 57 yds· opp 2Q3

USATD7 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 11Q3

USAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 40Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 27Q3

USATD7 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 19Q4

USAPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 32Q4

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 17Q4

USAINT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q4

SOUTTD5 pl, 43 yds· midfieldQ4

USAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTFG GOOD11 pl, 54 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH 28 yard field goal GOOD.22–21
• Q4 6:13SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH pass complete for a touchdown.19–21
• Q4 14:47USASOUTH ALABAMA Extra point GOOD.13–21
• Q4 14:47USASOUTH ALABAMA pass complete for a touchdown.13–20
• Q3 7:38USASOUTH ALABAMA Extra point GOOD.13–14
• Q3 7:38USASOUTH ALABAMA Extra point GOOD.13–14
• Q3 7:38USASOUTH ALABAMA pass complete for a touchdown.13–13
• Q3 11:15SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH 37 yard field goal GOOD.13–7
• Q1 1:16SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH Extra point GOOD.10–0
• Q1 1:16SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH rush for a touchdown.10–0
• Q1 5:52SOUTSOUTHERN UTAH 33 yard field goal GOOD.3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Southern Utah were +41 — a 1% shot

#6 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #1 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.

The 2013 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →