#2Ross Metheny

QB·South Alabama·20132.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ross Metheny is a Clutch Passer for South Alabama. Ross's 2013 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 362 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ross Metheny's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

201/324 Comp/Att2622 Pass yards15 Pass TD7 INT62.0% Comp %

Rushing

604 Rush yards10 Rush TD132 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat39
Consistency83
Clutch86

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Troy (SP+ -15).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern Utah	L21-22	—	12/17	112	2	0	69.2	2	0	0.23
2	@Tulane	W41-39	-8.0	19/30	290	2	2	78.8	75	2	0.58
3	vsWestern Kentucky	W31-24	-3.1	11/15	193	0	0	88.7	22	1	0.53
5	@Tennessee	L24-31	5.1	21/42	234	0	2	55.4	67	2	0.17
6	@Troy	L33-34	-14.5	15/21	236	1	0	89.7	55	1	0.73
8	vsKent State	W38-21	-13.8	16/23	224	1	0	87.4	21	1	0.57
9	@Texas State	L31-33	-13.7	27/43	300	3	1	61.2	40	1	0.27
10	vsArkansas State	L16-17	-16.2	15/29	228	0	1	44.1	77	0	0.24
12	@Navy	L14-42	-0.3	18/27	160	2	0	70.8	23	0	0.20
13	vsUL Monroe	W36-14	-26.2	15/26	194	3	1	79.4	126	1	0.21
14	@Georgia State	W38-17	-32.6	19/28	280	1	0	83.2	50	1	0.37
15	vsLouisiana	W30-8	-12.5	13/23	171	0	0	44.9	46	0	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

44.9%

Passing plays

74.1%

Rushing plays

22.5%

Standard downs

39.3%

Passing downs

55.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.44 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.