Florida vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsUK
- Q4 12:16UKDante Dowdell 65 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–38
- Q3 7:34UKSeth McGowan 5 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–31
- Q2 1:26UKSeth McGowan 2 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:32UKJason Patterson 15 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:39UKJ.J. Hester 29 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:12FLAJadan Baugh 10 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:42UKJacob Kauwe 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDJ Lagway 11/19, 83 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 17 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecJ. Michael Sturdivant 3 REC, 29 YDS
- PassCutter Boley 18/23, 168 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDante Dowdell 7 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKendrick Law 6 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:32UK +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #26 J.Patterson caught at UF01, for 15 yards to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:39UK +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep right to #4 J.Hester caught at UF03, for 29 yards to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:12FLA +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short middle to #13 J.Baugh caught at UK05, for 10 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:26UK +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush right for 2 yards gain to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 10:43UK +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass intercepted by #14 T.Bryant at UK32 broken up by #7 D.Rayner #14 T.Bryant return 17 yards to the UK49 (#8 V.Brown III)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Kentucky?
Florida 7, Kentucky 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FLA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 247 | Total yards | 401 |
| 143 | Passing yards | 168 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 233 |
| 17 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 20/37 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 28:27 | Possession | 31:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:22 FLA punt on 4th & 5 at UK 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:16UKDante Dowdell 65 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–38
- Q3 7:34UKSeth McGowan 5 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–31
- Q2 1:26UKSeth McGowan 2 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:32UKJason Patterson 15 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:39UKJ.J. Hester 29 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:12FLAJadan Baugh 10 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:42UKJacob Kauwe 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1535, FLA Elo 1655 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +2.4 (45% to win) — 2.6 points clear of UK's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #78 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Florida leads 54–22 · 33% have been one-possession games
| FLA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.5 (#59) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#52) |
| +0 / -3 | offense / defense | -2 / -8 |
| 1.68 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →