TCU vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsSMU
- Q4 2:55TCUJordyn Bailey 6 Yd pass from Ken Seals (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)42–66
- Q4 8:23SMUBrashard Smith 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)35–66
- Q4 12:15TCUJack Bech 15 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)35–59
- Q3 1:35SMUCollin Rogers 45 Yd Field Goal 28–59
- Q3 8:34SMUBrashard Smith 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)28–56
- Q3 9:27SMUBrashard Smith 24 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Kevin Jennings Pass to Brashard Smith for Two-Point Conversion)28–49
- Q3 11:18TCUJack Bech 46 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)28–41
- Q2 0:00SMUCollin Rogers 49 Yd Field Goal 21–41
- Q2 1:04SMUAhmaad Moses 60 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)21–38
- Q2 1:28SMUJordan Hudson 10 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)21–31
- Q2 5:00TCUEric McAlister 19 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)21–24
- Q2 8:01SMUBrashard Smith 25 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:24TCUCam Cook 7 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:51TCUJosh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)7–17
- Q1 6:10SMURoderick Daniels Jr. 69 Yd Punt Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:02SMUBrandon Crossley 51 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:52SMUCollin Rogers 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJosh Hoover 28/43, 396 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushCam Cook 14 CAR, 24 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJack Bech 8 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- PassKevin Jennings 14/19, 137 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrashard Smith 18 CAR, 127 YDS, 3 TD
- RecRomello Brinson 1 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 340 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:00TCU +17%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
- Q2 1:28SMU +17%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
- Q2 11:24TCU +16%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
- Q2 8:01SMU +16%
Brashard Smith run for 25 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
- Q1 7:02SMU +14%
Brandon Crossley 51 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)
- Q2 14:51TCU +10%
Josh Hoover run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. SMU?
TCU 42, SMU 66.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| TCU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 480 | Total yards | 375 |
| 415 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 65 | Rushing yards | 238 |
| 24 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 31/46 | Comp/Att | 14/19 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 14-135 | Penalties | 7-77 |
| 32:20 | Possession | 27:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:32 SMU field goal on 4th & 6 at TCU 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:55TCUJordyn Bailey 6 Yd pass from Ken Seals (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)42–66
- Q4 8:23SMUBrashard Smith 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)35–66
- Q4 12:15TCUJack Bech 15 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)35–59
- Q3 1:35SMUCollin Rogers 45 Yd Field Goal 28–59
- Q3 8:34SMUBrashard Smith 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)28–56
- Q3 9:27SMUBrashard Smith 24 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Kevin Jennings Pass to Brashard Smith for Two-Point Conversion)28–49
- Q3 11:18TCUJack Bech 46 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)28–41
- Q2 0:00SMUCollin Rogers 49 Yd Field Goal 21–41
- Q2 1:04SMUAhmaad Moses 60 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)21–38
- Q2 1:28SMUJordan Hudson 10 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)21–31
- Q2 5:00TCUEric McAlister 19 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)21–24
- Q2 8:01SMUBrashard Smith 25 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:24TCUCam Cook 7 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:51TCUJosh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)7–17
- Q1 6:10SMURoderick Daniels Jr. 69 Yd Punt Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:02SMUBrandon Crossley 51 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:52SMUCollin Rogers 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1648, TCU Elo 1580 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU -5.1 (65% to win) — 6.6 points clear of SMU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #115 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →TCU leads 54–42–7 · 42% have been one-possession games
| TCU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.5 (#31) | CORE overall | +22.7 (#9) |
| +10 / -2 | offense / defense | +8 / -15 |
| 2.68 | points / drive | 2.65 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →