#7Kevin Jennings

QB·SMU·2025 20247.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kevin Jennings is a 2-year Clutch Passer for SMU. Kevin's 2025 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 517 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kevin Jennings's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

300/454 Comp/Att3641 Pass yards26 Pass TD13 INT66.1% Comp %

Rushing

54 Rush yards4 Rush TD70 Carries0.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Dual-Threat43
Consistency81
Clutch88

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.61 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Boston College (SP+ -9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsEast Texas A&M	W42-13	—	22/30	260	2	1	26.1	12	1	0.40
2	vsBaylor	L45-48	1.4	16/22	295	3	1	50.1	16	0	0.14
3	@Missouri State	W28-10	-10.7	24/36	281	1	1	62.7	-11	0	0.33
4	@TCU	L24-35	8.3	24/38	290	3	2	76.8	13	0	0.43
6	vsSyracuse	W31-18	-13.1	29/35	285	4	1	86.0	-6	0	0.60
7	vsStanford	W34-10	-11.8	22/30	247	2	0	76.6	-19	0	0.41
8	@Clemson	W35-24	9.5	23/43	290	2	1	69.1	20	0	0.21
9	@Wake Forest	L12-13	5.7	21/39	171	0	1	40.7	7	0	-0.18
10	vsMiami	W26-20	20.7	29/44	365	1	0	67.6	-8	1	0.23
11	@Boston College	W45-13	-8.5	16/32	326	3	1	49.8	1	0	0.61
13	vsLouisville	W38-6	12.4	29/37	303	3	0	93.9	2	1	0.56
14	@California	L35-38	-3.2	24/36	250	2	1	75.4	23	1	0.33
20	vsArizona	W24-19	12.0	21/32	278	0	3	—	4	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.4%

Passing plays

98.3%

Rushing plays

14.5%

Standard downs

51.9%

Passing downs

79.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	SMU	8.4	0.503	—	244.6
2025	SMU	7.2	0.399	-0.10	187.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.