New Mexico State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsFRES
- Q3 5:15FRESJoshua Wood 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–48
- Q3 9:44FRESDylan Lynch 40 Yd Field Goal 0–41
- Q3 12:14FRESJoshua Wood 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:59FRESDylan Lynch 36 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 4:20FRESMac Dalena 13 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–28
- Q2 11:08FRESMalik Sherrod 7 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:55FRESElijah Gilliam 4 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:04FRESMac Dalena 69 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NMSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FRES did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassParker Awad 6/15, 48 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSeth McGowan 11 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecJordan Smith 2 REC, 31 YDS
- PassMikey Keene 12/22, 221 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMalik Sherrod 15 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMac Dalena 2 REC, 82 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 48 entering the 4th quarter. Across 80 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:04FRES +14%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 69 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q1 9:55FRES +10%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Fresno State?
New Mexico State 0, Fresno State 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| NMSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 138 | Total yards | 525 |
| 61 | Passing yards | 244 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 10 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 11/29 | Comp/Att | 14/25 |
| 2.1 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-90 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 30:00 | Possession | 30:00 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:56 FRES punt on 4th & 4 at NMSU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 5:15FRESJoshua Wood 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–48
- Q3 9:44FRESDylan Lynch 40 Yd Field Goal 0–41
- Q3 12:14FRESJoshua Wood 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:59FRESDylan Lynch 36 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 4:20FRESMac Dalena 13 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–28
- Q2 11:08FRESMalik Sherrod 7 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:55FRESElijah Gilliam 4 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:04FRESMac Dalena 69 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1551, NMSU Elo 1431 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -7.2 (69% to win) — 12.8 points clear of NMSU's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFresno State leads 20–1 · Fresno State has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| NMSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -24.3 (#129) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#64) |
| -11 / +13 | offense / defense | -7 / -8 |
| 1.50 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 2.90 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →