Mac Dalena

WR·Fresno State·2024

Mac Dalena is a Versatile WR for Fresno State. Mac's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 61 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mac Dalena's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

60 Receptions998 Rec yards8 Rec TD16.6 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns36 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume24
Explosiveness64
Consistency77
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.45 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 4.46 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -19).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L10-30	10.6	6	67	11.2	0	19	0.97
2	vsSacramento State	W46-30	—	7	235	33.6	1	75	1.73
3	vsNew Mexico State	W48-0	-19.0	2	82	41.0	2	69	4.46
4	@New Mexico	W38-21	-14.8	3	47	15.7	0	29	0.69
5	@UNLV	L14-59	9.3	4	70	17.5	1	22	1.06
8	@Nevada	W24-21	-15.2	4	45	11.3	0	16	0.94
9	vsSan José State	W33-10	-5.5	5	85	17.0	1	35	1.69
10	vsHawai'i	L20-21	-10.9	5	38	7.6	0	11	0.63
11	@Air Force	L28-36	-11.7	4	89	22.3	2	73	2.39
13	vsColorado State	W28-22	-5.7	7	75	10.7	1	28	0.85
14	@UCLA	L13-20	-1.3	7	47	6.7	0	21	0.41
20	vsNorthern Illinois	L20-28	-3.5	6	118	19.7	0	54	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.5%

Passing plays

14.0%

Rushing plays

1.5%

Standard downs

7.7%

Passing downs

10.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 1.01
Passing downs: 1.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.33 / -0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).