Ohio State vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 2:07OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 2 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)35–16
- Q4 12:02OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 4 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)28–16
- Q4 14:07RUTGJaQuae Jackson 19 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Jai Patel Kick)21–16
- Q3 2:39OSUTreVeyon Henderson 9 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)21–9
- Q3 9:49OSUJordan Hancock 93 Yd Interception Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–9
- Q2 0:01RUTGJai Patel 20 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 2:03RUTGJai Patel 21 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 7:49RUTGJai Patel 22 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:35OSUGee Scott Jr. 14 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- RUTG lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassKyle McCord 19/26, 189 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTreVeyon Henderson 22 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTreVeyon Henderson 5 REC, 80 YDS
- PassGavin Wimsatt 10/25, 129 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKyle Monangai 24 CAR, 159 YDS
- RecChristian Dremel 5 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,517 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:49OSU +17%
Jordan Hancock 93 Yd Interception Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)
- Q4 14:07RUTG +10%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 19 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
- Q2 0:01RUTG +7%
Jai Patel 20 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 12:02OSU +6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q3 2:39OSU +6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q1 8:35OSU +6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Rutgers?
Ohio State 35, Rutgers 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 328 | Total yards | 361 |
| 189 | Passing yards | 129 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 232 |
| 15 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 19/26 | Comp/Att | 10/25 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 24:23 | Possession | 35:37 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:52 OSU punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:07OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 2 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)35–16
- Q4 12:02OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 4 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)28–16
- Q4 14:07RUTGJaQuae Jackson 19 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Jai Patel Kick)21–16
- Q3 2:39OSUTreVeyon Henderson 9 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)21–9
- Q3 9:49OSUJordan Hancock 93 Yd Interception Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–9
- Q2 0:01RUTGJai Patel 20 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 2:03RUTGJai Patel 21 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 7:49RUTGJai Patel 22 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:35OSUGee Scott Jr. 14 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1465, OSU Elo 2077 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +22.1 (9% to win) — 3.1 points clear of OSU's market line of +19. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 11–0 · Ohio State has won 11 straight
| OSU | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| +36.4 (#2) | CORE overall | -2.1 (#73) |
| +15 / -21 | offense / defense | -5 / -3 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 0.98 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →