Georgetown vs. Bucknell: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats

Georgetown4-5
▸
Bucknell0-1
Final/OT
Christy Mathewson-Memorial StadiumConference game
GEORTeam statsBUCK
422Total yards432
361Pass296
61Rush136
20First downs24
5-133rd down6-17
2Turnovers3
31:18Possession28:42
- OT 0:00GEORJoshua Stakely 1 Yd Run 50–47
- OT 0:00BUCKMatt Schearer 41 Yd Field Goal 50–47
- Q4 1:45GEORJimmy Kibble 25 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)44–44
- Q4 3:14BUCKChristian Tait 28 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)37–44
- Q4 6:16BUCKEric Weatherly 32 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)37–37
- Q4 9:22BUCKDerrick Anderson Jr. 65 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)37–30
- Q3 1:39BUCKRushawn Baker 38 Yd Run (Ralph Rucker Run for Two-Point Conversion)37–23
- Q3 4:41GEORJimmy Kibble 95 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)37–15
- Q3 13:03GEORNaiteitei Mose 46 Yd Kickoff Return (Patrick Ryan Kick)30–15
- Q3 13:08BUCKRushawn Baker 2 Yd Run (Matt Schearer Kick)23–15
- Q2 1:30GEORNicholas Dunneman 23 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)23–8
- Q2 4:58BUCKRushawn Baker 1 Yd Run (Ralph Rucker Pass to Eric Weatherly for Two-Point Conversion)16–8
- Q1 4:02GEORTeam Safety16–0
- Q1 7:44GEORNaieem Kearney 1 Yd Run (Patrick Ryan Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:39GEORBrock Biestek 20 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
GEOR −2
Against the number
GEOR covered
line GEOR −2
What the numbers say
- BUCK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GEOR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.5
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
BUCK (top)GEOR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUCK 0%
Closing line
GEOR −2
Closing total
51.5
Model line
—
Actual result
GEOR 50 – 47 BUCK
Georgetown
- PassTyler Knoop 27/38, 361 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushNaieem Kearney 11 CAR, 31 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJimmy Kibble 8 REC, 179 YDS, 2 TD
Bucknell
- PassRalph Rucker IV 20/41, 296 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushRushawn Baker 17 CAR, 97 YDS, 3 TD
- RecChristian Tait 4 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
20.7sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
153
Points / snap
0.63
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGEOR up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,517 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
GEOR went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgetown vs. Bucknell?
Georgetown 50, Bucknell 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUCK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
GEOR
BUCK
42%
Success rate
39%
0.41
EPA / pass
0.13
-0.02
EPA / rush
0.09
42%
Early-down success
36%
47%
Pass success
36%
35%
Rush success
44%
14%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
27%
Stuffed rush rate
27%
62%
Pass rate
60%
5.5
Avg 3rd-down distance
8.0
GEOR
5.5 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
BUCK
8.0 yards to go on 3rd down
84 scrimmage snaps
| GEOR | BUCK | |
|---|---|---|
| 422 | Total yards | 432 |
| 361 | Passing yards | 296 |
| 61 | Rushing yards | 136 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 27/38 | Comp/Att | 20/41 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-84 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 31:18 | Possession | 28:42 |
GEOR
3/7 with the model
−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
BUCK
6/8 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 2:55 GEOR punt on 4th & 1 at GEOR 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishGEOR 6/17 scoring drives← own end zone →BUCK 8/17 scoring drives
BUCKINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 26Q1
BUCKSAF2 pl, -9 yds· own 10Q1
GEORTD9 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
GEORTD4 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q1
BUCKPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 39Q1
GEORPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 44Q1
GEORINT8 pl, 33 yds· own 38Q1
BUCKFG4 pl, 1 yds· opp 25Q1
GEORTD7 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1
GEORPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 9Q2
BUCKINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 23Q2
BUCKPUNT10 pl, 28 yds· own 19Q2
BUCKTD12 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2
GEORPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
GEORTD2 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q2
BUCKPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 45Q2
GEOREND2 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
GEORPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 2Q3
GEORTD1 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q3
BUCKTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
BUCKDOWNS12 pl, 65 yds· own 33Q3
BUCKFUM4 pl, 11 yds· opp 13Q3
BUCKTD8 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3
GEORUncateg8 pl, -24 yds· own 35Q3
GEORINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 49Q4
GEORUncateg2 pl, 27 yds· own 13Q4
BUCKTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
GEORPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 28Q4
BUCKDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 42Q4
BUCKTD4 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4
GEORPUNT5 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
BUCKTD2 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q4
GEORTD5 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q4
BUCKPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q4
- OT 0:00GEORJoshua Stakely 1 Yd Run 50–47
- OT 0:00BUCKMatt Schearer 41 Yd Field Goal 50–47
- Q4 1:45GEORJimmy Kibble 25 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)44–44
- Q4 3:14BUCKChristian Tait 28 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)37–44
- Q4 6:16BUCKEric Weatherly 32 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)37–37
- Q4 9:22BUCKDerrick Anderson Jr. 65 Yd pass from Ralph Rucker (Matt Schearer Kick)37–30
- Q3 1:39BUCKRushawn Baker 38 Yd Run (Ralph Rucker Run for Two-Point Conversion)37–23
- Q3 4:41GEORJimmy Kibble 95 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)37–15
- Q3 13:03GEORNaiteitei Mose 46 Yd Kickoff Return (Patrick Ryan Kick)30–15
- Q3 13:08BUCKRushawn Baker 2 Yd Run (Matt Schearer Kick)23–15
- Q2 1:30GEORNicholas Dunneman 23 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)23–8
- Q2 4:58BUCKRushawn Baker 1 Yd Run (Ralph Rucker Pass to Eric Weatherly for Two-Point Conversion)16–8
- Q1 4:02GEORTeam Safety16–0
- Q1 7:44GEORNaieem Kearney 1 Yd Run (Patrick Ryan Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:39GEORBrock Biestek 20 Yd pass from Tyler Knoop (Patrick Ryan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
