Florida vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsUK
- Q4 7:44UKAlex Raynor 50 Yd Field Goal 14–33
- Q3 7:17FLARicky Pearsall 33 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)14–30
- Q3 10:54UKRay Davis 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)7–30
- Q2 0:34FLAHayden Hansen 4 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)7–23
- Q2 8:54UKRay Davis 3 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)0–23
- Q1 0:22UKRay Davis 75 Yd Run (Alex Raynor PAT blocked)0–16
- Q1 5:37UKRay Davis 9 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:13UKAlex Raynor 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassGraham Mertz 25/30, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMontrell Johnson Jr. 10 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecRicky Pearsall 3 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDevin Leary 9/19, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRay Davis 26 CAR, 280 YDS, 3 TD
- RecBarion Brown 4 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,240 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:37UK +14%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
- Q1 0:22UK +8%
Ray Davis run for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor PAT BLOCKED)
- Q1 7:13UK +7%
Alex Raynor 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Kentucky?
Florida 14, Kentucky 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
| FLA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 313 | Total yards | 398 |
| 244 | Passing yards | 69 |
| 69 | Rushing yards | 329 |
| 15 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 1-8 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/30 | Comp/Att | 9/19 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 9.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-86 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 31:14 | Possession | 28:46 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:44UKAlex Raynor 50 Yd Field Goal 14–33
- Q3 7:17FLARicky Pearsall 33 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)14–30
- Q3 10:54UKRay Davis 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)7–30
- Q2 0:34FLAHayden Hansen 4 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)7–23
- Q2 8:54UKRay Davis 3 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)0–23
- Q1 0:22UKRay Davis 75 Yd Run (Alex Raynor PAT blocked)0–16
- Q1 5:37UKRay Davis 9 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:13UKAlex Raynor 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1675, FLA Elo 1601 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK -5.4 (65% to win) — 3.9 points clear of UK's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#118 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #33 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →Florida leads 54–22 · 33% have been one-possession games
| FLA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.7 (#41) | CORE overall | +6.5 (#40) |
| +9 / +3 | offense / defense | +3 / -3 |
| 2.36 | points / drive | 2.42 |
| 2.72 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →