Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsPITT
- Q4 11:53PITTGavin Bartholomew 16 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)27–21
- Q4 14:48PITTKonata Mumpfield 9 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)27–14
- Q3 9:17CINBraden Smith 21 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:05CINCarter Brown 47 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 13:20CINCorey Kiner 7 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)17–7
- Q1 4:17PITTKonata Mumpfield 5 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:57CINCarter Brown 22 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:06CINPayten Singletary 12 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PITT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CIN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PITT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 30% success rate
- PassEmory Jones 18/26, 125 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushCorey Kiner 20 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraden Smith 5 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- PassPhil Jurkovec 10/32, 179 YDS, 3 TD
- RushC'Bo Flemister 6 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecGavin Bartholomew 3 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 816 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:53PITT +21%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 16 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
- Q2 13:20CIN +20%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
- Q1 13:06CIN +18%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 12 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
- Q1 4:17PITT +17%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 5 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
- Q4 6:02CIN +14%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 22
- Q4 5:44PITT +12%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh?
Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PITT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CIN | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 262 |
| 155 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 216 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/27 | Comp/Att | 10/32 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-90 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 34:43 | Possession | 25:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:38 CIN punt on 4th & 3 at CIN 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:53PITTGavin Bartholomew 16 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)27–21
- Q4 14:48PITTKonata Mumpfield 9 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)27–14
- Q3 9:17CINBraden Smith 21 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:05CINCarter Brown 47 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 13:20CINCorey Kiner 7 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)17–7
- Q1 4:17PITTKonata Mumpfield 5 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:57CINCarter Brown 22 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:06CINPayten Singletary 12 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1624, CIN Elo 1626 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT -2.3 (57% to win) — 4.2 points clear of CIN's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPittsburgh leads 9–5 · 50% have been one-possession games
| CIN | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.4 (#93) | CORE overall | +0.2 (#60) |
| -1 / +7 | offense / defense | -7 / -7 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 1.17 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →