Arizona vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 1:07ARIZTyler Loop 23 Yd Field Goal 34–28
- Q4 6:34ARIZTetairoa McMillan 17 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)31–28
- Q4 10:22UCLAZach Charbonnet 5 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)24–28
- Q4 13:20ARIZTyler Loop 35 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 3:38UCLAZach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)21–21
- Q2 2:01ARIZJayden de Laura 3 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:11UCLAHudson Habermehl 51 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)14–14
- Q2 13:12UCLAZach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:50ARIZMichael Wiley 22 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:47ARIZMichael Wiley 10 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJayden de Laura 22/28, 315 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMichael Wiley 21 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob Cowing 9 REC, 118 YDS
- PassDorian Thompson-Robinson 26/39, 245 YDS, 1 TD
- RushZach Charbonnet 24 CAR, 181 YDS, 3 TD
- RecHudson Habermehl 3 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:34ARIZ +48%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q4 13:20ARIZ +29%
Tyler Loop 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 10:22UCLA +28%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
- Q4 5:47ARIZ +24%
Michael Wiley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 28
- Q3 3:38UCLA +23%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
- Q2 2:01ARIZ +21%
Jayden de Laura run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. UCLA?
Arizona 34, UCLA 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARIZ | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total yards | 464 |
| 312 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 124 | Rushing yards | 219 |
| 22 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 23/29 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-32 | Penalties | 4-23 |
| 34:20 | Possession | 25:40 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:18 ARIZ punt on 4th & 4 at UCLA 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:07ARIZTyler Loop 23 Yd Field Goal 34–28
- Q4 6:34ARIZTetairoa McMillan 17 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)31–28
- Q4 10:22UCLAZach Charbonnet 5 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)24–28
- Q4 13:20ARIZTyler Loop 35 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 3:38UCLAZach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)21–21
- Q2 2:01ARIZJayden de Laura 3 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:11UCLAHudson Habermehl 51 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)14–14
- Q2 13:12UCLAZach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:50ARIZMichael Wiley 22 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:47ARIZMichael Wiley 10 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1738, ARIZ Elo 1322 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -19 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #10 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #10 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →UCLA leads 27–18–2 · Arizona has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 (#76) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#21) |
| +10 / +13 | offense / defense | +15 / +2 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 3.56 |
| 3.41 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →