#1Dorian Thompson-Robinson

QB·UCLA·2022 20218.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for UCLA. Dorian's 2022 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 496 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dorian Thompson-Robinson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

265/381 Comp/Att3153 Pass yards27 Pass TD10 INT69.6% Comp %

Rushing

647 Rush yards12 Rush TD117 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency88
Clutch82

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Arizona State (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBowling Green	W45-17	-18.1	32/43	298	2	1	76.6	87	2	0.38
2	vsAlabama State	W45-7	—	9/11	101	1	0	86.2	—	—	0.65
3	vsSouth Alabama	W32-31	10.8	20/30	263	3	0	83.4	27	0	0.61
4	@Colorado	W45-17	-20.4	19/23	234	2	0	94.9	56	0	0.54
5	vsWashington	W40-32	15.7	24/33	315	3	0	92.4	53	1	0.53
6	vsUtah	W42-32	19.2	18/23	299	4	1	94.9	8	1	0.47
8	@Oregon	L30-45	18.9	27/39	262	2	1	65.9	38	0	0.29
9	vsStanford	W38-13	-7.2	18/29	199	0	0	85.7	50	1	0.34
10	@Arizona State	W50-36	-4.1	13/20	169	2	1	98.3	120	2	0.76
11	vsArizona	L28-34	-3.2	26/39	245	1	0	37.3	24	0	-0.00
12	vsUSC	L45-48	18.9	23/38	309	4	3	64.9	81	2	0.56
13	@California	W35-28	-3.0	21/30	189	1	0	77.9	88	2	0.40
1	vsPittsburgh	L35-37	8.6	15/23	270	2	3	—	15	1	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.0%

Passing plays

90.4%

Rushing plays

20.4%

Standard downs

48.0%

Passing downs

66.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.59

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	UCLA	10.4	0.587	—	255.8
2022	UCLA	8.7	0.478	-0.11	253.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.