Florida vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsUGA
- Q4 1:19FLAEvan McPherson 34 Yd Field Goal 44–28
- Q3 0:41UGAKearis Jackson 25 Yd pass from D'Wan Mathis (Jack Podlesny Kick)41–28
- Q3 11:48FLAEvan McPherson 51 Yd Field Goal 41–21
- Q2 0:11FLATrevon Grimes 14 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)38–21
- Q2 1:44FLAEvan McPherson 50 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q2 7:44FLAKemore Gamble 24 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)28–21
- Q2 11:38FLAKyle Pitts 25 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:17UGAEric Stokes 37 Yd Interception Return (Jack Podlesny Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:43FLADameon Pierce 2 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:20FLAJustin Shorter 14 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:44UGAMarcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 32 Yd pass from Stetson Bennett (Jack Podlesny Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:48UGAZamir White 75 Yd Run (Jack Podlesny Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UGA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FLA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 6.1
- UGA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 25% success rate
- PassKyle Trask 30/43, 474 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushDameon Pierce 15 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Davis 5 REC, 100 YDS
- PassStetson Bennett IV 5/16, 78 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushZamir White 7 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKearis Jackson 3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:44FLA +22%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 24 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q2 11:38FLA +19%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 25 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q2 12:17UGA +19%
Kyle Trask pass intercepted for a TD Eric Stokes return for 37 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
- Q1 1:43FLA +18%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q1 8:20FLA +13%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 14 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q2 0:11FLA +13%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 14 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Georgia?
Florida 44, Georgia 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FLA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 571 | Total yards | 277 |
| 474 | Passing yards | 112 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 29 | First downs | 12 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 30/43 | Comp/Att | 9/29 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 37:26 | Possession | 22:34 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:06 FLA punt on 4th & 4 at UGA 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:19FLAEvan McPherson 34 Yd Field Goal 44–28
- Q3 0:41UGAKearis Jackson 25 Yd pass from D'Wan Mathis (Jack Podlesny Kick)41–28
- Q3 11:48FLAEvan McPherson 51 Yd Field Goal 41–21
- Q2 0:11FLATrevon Grimes 14 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)38–21
- Q2 1:44FLAEvan McPherson 50 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q2 7:44FLAKemore Gamble 24 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)28–21
- Q2 11:38FLAKyle Pitts 25 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:17UGAEric Stokes 37 Yd Interception Return (Jack Podlesny Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:43FLADameon Pierce 2 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:20FLAJustin Shorter 14 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:44UGAMarcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 32 Yd pass from Stetson Bennett (Jack Podlesny Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:48UGAZamir White 75 Yd Run (Jack Podlesny Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 1896, FLA Elo 1832 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UGA -2.6 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #85 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #42 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Georgia leads 58–44–2 · Georgia has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| FLA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.9 (#17) | CORE overall | +17.1 (#13) |
| +14 / -1 | offense / defense | +7 / -10 |
| 3.27 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 1.58 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →