East Carolina vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsUSF
- Q4 0:31USFNoah Johnson 15 Yd Run (Jared Sackett Kick)44–24
- Q4 3:14ECUJake Verity 37 Yd Field Goal 44–17
- Q4 13:20ECUJake Verity 42 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q3 0:10ECUC.J. Johnson 14 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)38–17
- Q2 0:32USFJared Sackett 31 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q2 2:17ECURahjai Harris 10 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)31–14
- Q2 4:59USFJohnny Ford 7 Yd Run (Kenny Scribner Kick)24–14
- Q2 13:18ECURahjai Harris 42 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)24–7
- Q1 0:16ECUC.J. Johnson 75 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:50ECUDarius Pinnix Jr. 2 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:58USFJohnny Ford 8 Yd Run (Kenny Scribner Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:35ECUJake Verity 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassHolton Ahlers 17/26, 222 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRahjai Harris 19 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- RecC.J. Johnson 3 REC, 99 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJordan McCloud 26/35, 298 YDS
- RushJohnny Ford 8 CAR, 44 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLatrell Williams 8 REC, 93 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:27ECU +19%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 5-C.Johnson. 5-C.Johnson runs 75 yards for a touchdown
- Q1 3:55ECU +19%
12-H.Ahlers complete to 40-D.Pinnix. 40-D.Pinnix runs 2 yards for a touchdown
- Q1 9:05USF +17%
1-J.Ford runs 8 yards for a touchdown
- Q2 13:26ECU +17%
47-R.Harris runs 42 yards for a touchdown
- Q2 5:08USF +16%
1-J.Ford runs 7 yards for a touchdown
- Q2 2:22ECU +15%
47-R.Harris runs 10 yards for a touchdown
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. South Florida?
East Carolina 44, South Florida 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ECU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 432 | Total yards | 398 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 306 |
| 210 | Rushing yards | 92 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 17/26 | Comp/Att | 28/38 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-45 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 35:36 | Possession | 24:24 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:07 ECU punt on 4th & 1 at ECU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31USFNoah Johnson 15 Yd Run (Jared Sackett Kick)44–24
- Q4 3:14ECUJake Verity 37 Yd Field Goal 44–17
- Q4 13:20ECUJake Verity 42 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q3 0:10ECUC.J. Johnson 14 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)38–17
- Q2 0:32USFJared Sackett 31 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q2 2:17ECURahjai Harris 10 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)31–14
- Q2 4:59USFJohnny Ford 7 Yd Run (Kenny Scribner Kick)24–14
- Q2 13:18ECURahjai Harris 42 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)24–7
- Q1 0:16ECUC.J. Johnson 75 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:50ECUDarius Pinnix Jr. 2 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:58USFJohnny Ford 8 Yd Run (Kenny Scribner Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:35ECUJake Verity 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1239, ECU Elo 1197 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -4.1 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #72 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →South Florida leads 9–4 · East Carolina has won 3 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| ECU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.8 (#87) | CORE overall | -13.7 (#103) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -6 / +7 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 1.60 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →