Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsUNC
- Q4 6:13VTTravon McMillian 4 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)34–3
- Q3 10:13VTJerod Evans 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)27–3
- Q3 12:43VTSam Rogers 22 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick)20–3
- Q2 1:50VTChris Cunningham 1 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick)13–3
- Q2 10:59UNCNick Weiler 28 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 5:23VTJoey Slye 28 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 9:33VTJoey Slye 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJerod Evans 7/17, 75 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTravon McMillian 17 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBucky Hodges 1 REC, 28 YDS
- PassMitchell Trubisky 13/33, 58 YDS, 2 INT
- RushT.J. Logan 14 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecT.J. Logan 6 REC, 30 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVT up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:50VT +20%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
- Q3 12:43VT +16%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 22 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
- Q2 10:59UNC +9%
Nick Weiler 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 5:23VT +8%
Joey Slye 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 9:33VT +8%
Joey Slye 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina?
Virginia Tech 34, North Carolina 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 264 | Total yards | 131 |
| 75 | Passing yards | 58 |
| 189 | Rushing yards | 73 |
| 18 | First downs | 8 |
| 8-20 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 7/17 | Comp/Att | 13/33 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 1.8 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-29 | Penalties | 8-49 |
| 39:59 | Possession | 20:01 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:39 VT punt on 4th & 1 at VT 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:13VTTravon McMillian 4 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)34–3
- Q3 10:13VTJerod Evans 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)27–3
- Q3 12:43VTSam Rogers 22 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick)20–3
- Q2 1:50VTChris Cunningham 1 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick)13–3
- Q2 10:59UNCNick Weiler 28 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 5:23VTJoey Slye 28 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 9:33VTJoey Slye 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1773, VT Elo 1805 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -1.1 (54% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #86 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #47 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 25–12–4 · 46% have been one-possession games
| VT | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.9 (#17) | CORE overall | +13.1 (#21) |
| +4 / -10 | offense / defense | +11 / -2 |
| 2.51 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 1.76 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →