#4Jerod Evans

QB·Virginia Tech·201610.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jerod Evans is a Dual-Threat QB for Virginia Tech. Jerod's 2016 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 585 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jerod Evans's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

268/422 Comp/Att3552 Pass yards29 Pass TD8 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

846 Rush yards12 Rush TD204 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat78
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs East Carolina (SP+ -9).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsLiberty	W36-13	—	20/32	221	4	0	90.7	46	0	0.41
2	vsTennessee	L24-45	16.3	20/28	214	1	0	59.8	18	0	0.08
3	vsBoston College	W49-0	-1.6	16/23	253	5	1	88.4	48	0	0.61
4	vsEast Carolina	W54-17	-9.0	13/20	282	3	0	93.9	97	1	0.74
6	@North Carolina	W34-3	15.9	7/17	75	2	0	43.3	49	1	-0.07
7	@Syracuse	L17-31	-2.7	20/33	307	2	1	62.0	61	0	0.29
8	vsMiami	W37-16	18.6	21/33	259	2	0	71.2	98	1	0.45
9	@Pittsburgh	W39-36	13.1	24/40	406	2	0	85.0	33	0	0.37
10	@Duke	W24-21	-2.8	15/27	192	0	0	76.1	83	1	0.33
11	vsGeorgia Tech	L20-30	7.8	32/45	316	1	2	41.9	75	2	0.29
12	@Notre Dame	W34-31	15.7	22/29	267	2	1	73.8	67	1	0.39
13	vsVirginia	W52-10	-3.8	16/27	253	2	0	77.9	38	1	0.42
14	vsClemson	L35-42	28.7	21/35	264	1	2	45.1	46	2	0.18
1	vsArkansas	W35-24	7.9	21/33	243	2	1	47.7	87	2	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.7%

Passing plays

94.4%

Rushing plays

28.9%

Standard downs

51.6%

Passing downs

67.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.