Arkansas State vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsTROY
- Q4 3:11ARSTDaryl Rollins-Davis 6 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)35–3
- Q3 8:59ARSTJohnston White 24 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)28–3
- Q3 11:24ARSTChad Voytik 4 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)21–3
- Q3 14:40ARSTChris Humes 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (J.D. Houston Kick)14–3
- Q2 3:02ARSTKendall Sanders 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick)7–3
- Q1 1:00TROYRyan Kay 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJustice Hansen 13/24, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RushWarren Wand 17 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecChris Murray 2 REC, 51 YDS
- PassBrandon Silvers 20/39, 207 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJordan Chunn 16 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecEmanuel Thompson 10 REC, 117 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:02ARST +23%
Kendall Sanders 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick)
- Q3 14:40ARST +18%
Chris Humes 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (J.D. Houston Kick)
- Q3 11:24ARST +13%
Chad Voytik 4 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)
- Q1 1:00TROY +8%
Ryan Kay 43 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 1:26ARST +5%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Troy?
Arkansas State 35, Troy 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TROY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Total yards | 262 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 207 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 55 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 14/26 | Comp/Att | 20/39 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 9-57 | Penalties | 3-16 |
| 36:17 | Possession | 23:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:30 ARST punt on 4th & 1 at ARST 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:11ARSTDaryl Rollins-Davis 6 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)35–3
- Q3 8:59ARSTJohnston White 24 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)28–3
- Q3 11:24ARSTChad Voytik 4 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)21–3
- Q3 14:40ARSTChris Humes 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (J.D. Houston Kick)14–3
- Q2 3:02ARSTKendall Sanders 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick)7–3
- Q1 1:00TROYRyan Kay 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1541, ARST Elo 1467 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -5.4 (65% to win) — 3.6 points clear of ARST's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #72 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #55 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 11–9 · Arkansas State has won 2 straight · 55% have been one-possession games
| ARST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4 (#70) | CORE overall | -1.9 (#74) |
| -9 / -8 | offense / defense | -7 / -5 |
| 1.84 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 1.34 | allowed / drive | 1.59 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →