Akron vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 2:45AKRDeMarcus Lloyd 31 Yd Interception Return (Tom O'Leary Kick)65–38
- Q4 5:51MRSHJosh Knight 25 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)58–38
- Q4 7:50AKRTom O'Leary 26 Yd Field Goal 58–31
- Q4 14:00AKRThomas Woodson 3 Yd Run (Tom O'Leary Kick)55–31
- Q3 1:59MRSHAmoreto Curraj 29 Yd Field Goal 48–31
- Q3 6:09AKRAustin Wolf 27 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)48–28
- Q3 9:02MRSHKeion Davis 8 Yd Run (Amoreto Curraj Kick)41–28
- Q2 0:20AKRTra'Von Chapman 1 Yd Run (Tom O'Leary Kick)41–21
- Q2 5:02AKRKwadarrius Smith 30 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)34–21
- Q2 7:45AKRUlysees Gilbert III 30 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Tom O'Leary PAT failed)27–21
- Q2 9:07AKRJoJo Natson 35 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)21–21
- Q2 13:00AKRDaumantas Venckus 35 Yd Fumble Return (Tom O'Leary Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:46MRSHJosh Knight 21 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–21
- Q1 4:15MRSHDeon-Tay McManus 18 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:18MRSHMichael Clark 3 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:47AKRMykel Traylor-Bennett 8 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MRSH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AKR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 7.2
- PassThomas Woodson 21/32, 379 YDS, 4 TD
- RushManny Morgan 18 CAR, 130 YDS
- RecJoJo Natson 7 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChase Litton 32/57, 413 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
- RushHyleck Foster 18 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecJosh Knight 7 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:02AKR +28%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 30 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
- Q2 0:20AKR +18%
Tra'Von Chapman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
- Q3 6:09AKR +18%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 27 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
- Q2 7:45AKR +16%
TEAM punt blocked by Zach Guiser blocked by Zach Guiser Ulysees Gilbert III return for 30 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary PAT MISSED)
- Q1 13:47AKR +13%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 8 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
- Q3 9:02AKR +13%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Marshall?
Akron 65, Marshall 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 524 | Total yards | 560 |
| 379 | Passing yards | 446 |
| 145 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 24 | First downs | 31 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 33/59 |
| 11.8 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 13-136 | Penalties | 17-180 |
| 23:15 | Possession | 36:45 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:02 MRSH punt on 4th & 2 at AKR 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:45AKRDeMarcus Lloyd 31 Yd Interception Return (Tom O'Leary Kick)65–38
- Q4 5:51MRSHJosh Knight 25 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)58–38
- Q4 7:50AKRTom O'Leary 26 Yd Field Goal 58–31
- Q4 14:00AKRThomas Woodson 3 Yd Run (Tom O'Leary Kick)55–31
- Q3 1:59MRSHAmoreto Curraj 29 Yd Field Goal 48–31
- Q3 6:09AKRAustin Wolf 27 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)48–28
- Q3 9:02MRSHKeion Davis 8 Yd Run (Amoreto Curraj Kick)41–28
- Q2 0:20AKRTra'Von Chapman 1 Yd Run (Tom O'Leary Kick)41–21
- Q2 5:02AKRKwadarrius Smith 30 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)34–21
- Q2 7:45AKRUlysees Gilbert III 30 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Tom O'Leary PAT failed)27–21
- Q2 9:07AKRJoJo Natson 35 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)21–21
- Q2 13:00AKRDaumantas Venckus 35 Yd Fumble Return (Tom O'Leary Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:46MRSHJosh Knight 21 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–21
- Q1 4:15MRSHDeon-Tay McManus 18 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:18MRSHMichael Clark 3 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:47AKRMykel Traylor-Bennett 8 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1649, AKR Elo 1296 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -16.5 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #24 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Marshall leads 8–5 · 15% have been one-possession games
| AKR | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.1 (#102) | CORE overall | -25.1 (#124) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | -12 / +13 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 1.64 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 3.14 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →