Navy vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsMEM
- Q4 3:20NAVYDemond Brown 1 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)45–20
- Q4 10:00NAVYCalvin Cass Jr. 8 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)38–20
- Q3 3:28NAVYChris Swain 40 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)31–20
- Q3 5:25MEMJake Elliott 38 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q3 6:43NAVYDeBrandon Sanders 75 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick)24–17
- Q3 6:53MEMAnthony Miller 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:00NAVYAustin Grebe 44 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 3:07NAVYChris Swain 2 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:29MEMJake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:37NAVYChris Swain 3 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:39MEMAnthony Miller 11 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NAVY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.9 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassKeenan Reynolds 3/5, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChris Swain 18 CAR, 108 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDeBrandon Sanders 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassPaxton Lynch 26/42, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDoroland Dorceus 12 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecPhil Mayhue 5 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:43NAVY +36%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
- Q3 3:28NAVY +34%
Chris Swain run for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
- Q3 6:53MEM +27%
Anthony Miller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q2 3:07NAVY +23%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
- Q1 4:37NAVY +16%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
- Q2 0:00NAVY +16%
Austin Grebe 44 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Memphis?
Navy 45, Memphis 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NAVY | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 459 | Total yards | 438 |
| 85 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 374 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 23 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 3/5 | Comp/Att | 26/42 |
| 17.0 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-5 | Penalties | 4-43 |
| 36:57 | Possession | 23:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:26 NAVY punt on 4th & 3 at MEM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.04 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:20NAVYDemond Brown 1 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)45–20
- Q4 10:00NAVYCalvin Cass Jr. 8 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)38–20
- Q3 3:28NAVYChris Swain 40 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)31–20
- Q3 5:25MEMJake Elliott 38 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q3 6:43NAVYDeBrandon Sanders 75 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick)24–17
- Q3 6:53MEMAnthony Miller 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:00NAVYAustin Grebe 44 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 3:07NAVYChris Swain 2 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:29MEMJake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:37NAVYChris Swain 3 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:39MEMAnthony Miller 11 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1715, NAVY Elo 1620 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -6.2 (67% to win) — 3.3 points clear of NAVY's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #49 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #15 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Memphis leads 6–5 · Navy has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.7 (#28) | CORE overall | +6.0 (#48) |
| +14 / +1 | offense / defense | +6 / -0 |
| 3.73 | points / drive | 2.78 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 2.17 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -26 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →