Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 5:25GASOFavian Upshaw 42 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)58–27
- Q4 14:55GASOFavian Upshaw 8 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)51–27
- Q3 1:51GASOMatt Breida 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)44–27
- Q3 2:55GASOFavian Upshaw 80 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)37–27
- Q3 7:28GASOFavian Upshaw 3 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)30–27
- Q2 0:36BGSUTravis Greene 5 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)23–27
- Q2 1:27GASOMontay Crockett 31 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick)23–20
- Q2 7:53GASOWesley Fields 26 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)16–20
- Q2 11:42BGSUGehrig Dieter 51 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)9–20
- Q1 0:33BGSURonnie Moore 15 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)9–13
- Q1 7:29GASOMatt Dobson Defensive PAT Conversion 9–6
- Q1 7:29BGSURoger Lewis 45 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 8:52GASOLA Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassKevin Ellison 3/5, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RushFavian Upshaw 12 CAR, 199 YDS, 4 TD
- RecMontay Crockett 1 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMatt Quinn Johnson 15/34, 246 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTravis Calton Greene 10 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRonnie Moore 5 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:55GASO +39%
Favian Upshaw run for 80 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
- Q3 7:28GASO +27%
Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
- Q2 1:27GASO +22%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 31 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
- Q3 1:51GASO +21%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
- Q2 0:36BGSU +21%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
- Q1 8:52GASO +17%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green?
Georgia Southern 58, Bowling Green 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GASO | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 534 | Total yards | 362 |
| 82 | Passing yards | 246 |
| 452 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 26 | First downs | 15 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 4/8 | Comp/Att | 15/34 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 7-59 |
| 40:39 | Possession | 19:21 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:52 GASO punt on 4th & 1 at GASO 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:25GASOFavian Upshaw 42 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)58–27
- Q4 14:55GASOFavian Upshaw 8 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)51–27
- Q3 1:51GASOMatt Breida 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)44–27
- Q3 2:55GASOFavian Upshaw 80 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)37–27
- Q3 7:28GASOFavian Upshaw 3 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)30–27
- Q2 0:36BGSUTravis Greene 5 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)23–27
- Q2 1:27GASOMontay Crockett 31 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick)23–20
- Q2 7:53GASOWesley Fields 26 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)16–20
- Q2 11:42BGSUGehrig Dieter 51 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)9–20
- Q1 0:33BGSURonnie Moore 15 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)9–13
- Q1 7:29GASOMatt Dobson Defensive PAT Conversion 9–6
- Q1 7:29BGSURoger Lewis 45 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 8:52GASOLA Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1775, GASO Elo 1521 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects BGSU -10.2 (76% to win) — 4.7 points clear of BGSU's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #58 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| GASO | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.3 (#45) | CORE overall | +16.6 (#18) |
| +6 / -1 | offense / defense | +17 / +0 |
| 3.04 | points / drive | 3.25 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -30 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →