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Week 2 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.

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Did it work?

Across the 85 games from this week that have finished, the pregame score correlates r = 0.34 with CFBD’s post-game excitement index. The five games this ranked highest averaged 4.0 excitement against 3.9 for the week.

Shown whether or not it flatters the score. A ranking with no stated criteria cannot be wrong, which is the reason not to build one.

The five

  1. 1
    #1Ohio Stateat#4Texas
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ETDKR-Texas Memorial Stadiummodel Ohio State by 3.0market -2.5excitement 5.1
    • Projected closeness 26/35
    • Team quality 29/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    70
    score
  2. 2
    UNLVatNorth Texas
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:45 PM ETDATCU Stadiummodel North Texas by 0.6market +3excitement 2.5
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 21/30
    • Points on the board 5/10
    59
    score
  3. 3
    #11OklahomaatMichigan
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETMichigan Stadiummodel Oklahoma by 5.4market +5excitement 4.4
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 25/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    55
    score
  4. 4
    San Diego StateatUCLA
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:15 PM ETRose Bowlmodel UCLA by 0.8market -13.5excitement 3.5
    • Projected closeness 32/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    51
    score
  5. 5
    #18TennesseeatGeorgia Tech
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ETBobby Dodd Stadiummodel Tennessee by 8.3market +12.5excitement 4.6
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 21/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    50
    score

The rest of the slate

  1. 6
    Iowa Stateat#21IowaCy-Hawk Trophy
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ETKinnick Stadiummodel Iowa by 14.8market -14excitement 5.0
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • History 9/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  2. 7
    Arizonaat#15BYU
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETLaVell Edwards Stadiummodel BYU by 10.3market -7excitement 5.2
    • Projected closeness 13/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    49
    score
  3. 8
    DukeatIllinois
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)model Illinois by 4.8market -6.5excitement 5.7
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    48
    score
  4. 9
    South FloridaatArmy
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETMichie Stadiummodel Army by 5.2market -3excitement 5.9
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    47
    score
  5. 10
    #12AlabamaatKentucky
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETKroger Fieldmodel Alabama by 9.4market +8.5excitement 4.7
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    47
    score
  6. 11
    #23MissouriatKansasBorder War
    Fri, Sep 11 · 8:00 PM ETMemorial Stadiummodel Missouri by 14.4market +4excitement 6.7
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 5/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    45
    score
  7. 12
    Wake ForestatPurdue
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETRoss-Ade Stadiummodel Purdue by 1.4market +2.5excitement 10.6
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    44
    score
  8. 13
    Arkansasat#20Utah
    Sat, Sep 12 · 10:15 PM ETRice-Eccles Stadiummodel Utah by 12.2market -13excitement 3.1
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 21/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    41
    score
  9. 14
    UTSAatTexas State
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETBobcat Stadium (TX)model Texas State by 4.6market -2excitement 6.5
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    40
    score
  10. 15
    Washington StateatKansas State
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETBill Snyder Family Stadiummodel Kansas State by 9.5market -17.5excitement 2.8
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    40
    score
  11. 16
    MemphisatBoise State
    Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ETAlbertsons Stadiummodel Boise State by 9.1market -9.5excitement 6.5
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  12. 17
    Sacramento StateatFresno State
    Sat, Sep 12 · 10:30 PM ETValley Children's Stadiummodel Fresno State by 5.7market -18excitement 2.6
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Points on the board 5/10
    38
    score
  13. 18
    Mississippi StateatMinnesota
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETHuntington Bank Stadiummodel Minnesota by 7.4market -0.5excitement 3.6
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  14. 19
    North Dakota StateatAir Force
    Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 PM ETFalcon Stadiummodel Air Force by 6.8market +1.5excitement 4.6
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    38
    score
  15. 20
    Utah Stateat#19Washington
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETHusky Stadiummodel Washington by 9.5market -28.5excitement 7.0
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  16. 21
    #16Penn StateatTemple
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETLincoln Financial Fieldmodel Penn State by 11.1market +24.5excitement 3.8
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  17. 22
    UCFatPittsburgh
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETAcrisure Stadiummodel Pittsburgh by 7.8market -7excitement 3.8
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    37
    score
  18. 23
    Eastern MichiganatMichigan State
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETSpartan Stadiummodel Michigan State by 4.9market -17.5excitement 2.7
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Points on the board 5/10
    36
    score
  19. 24
    Arizona Stateat#10Texas A&M
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETKyle Fieldmodel Texas A&M by 22.0market -15excitement 4.1
    • Projected closeness 4/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    36
    score
  20. 25
    RutgersatBoston College
    Fri, Sep 11 · 7:30 PM ETAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)model Rutgers by 5.2market -3excitement 3.9
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    35
    score
  21. 26
    Illinois StateatNorthern Illinois
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ETHuskie Stadiummodel Northern Illinois by 5.8market +2.5excitement 6.8
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    33
    score
  22. 27
    Louisiana Techat#8LSU
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ETTiger Stadium (LA)model LSU by 23.7market -34.5excitement 3.8
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    32
    score
  23. 28
    CaliforniaatSyracuse
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETJMA Wireless Domemodel California by 6.2market -4excitement 6.3
    • Projected closeness 19/35
    • Team quality 5/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    31
    score
  24. 29
    MarylandatUConn
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETPratt & Whitney Stadiummodel Maryland by 10.0market +11.5excitement 4.1
    • Projected closeness 13/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    30
    score
  25. 30
    South AlabamaatTulane
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ETYulman Stadiummodel Tulane by 9.5market -9.5excitement 6.4
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    30
    score
  26. 31
    DelawareatVanderbilt
    Sat, Sep 12 · 4:15 PM ETFirstBank Stadiummodel Vanderbilt by 12.5market -20.5excitement 4.2
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    29
    score
  27. 32
    Sacred HeartatMassachusetts
    Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ETWarren McGuirk Alumni Stadiummodel Massachusetts by 8.5market -23.5excitement 2.2
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    29
    score
  28. 33
    Jacksonville StateatOhio
    Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ETPeden Stadiummodel Ohio by 6.8market -1.5excitement 10.3
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    29
    score
  29. 34
    BuffaloatFlorida International
    Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ETPitbull Stadiummodel Florida International by 7.0market -8.5excitement 3.1
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    29
    score
  30. 35
    NavyatFlorida Atlantic
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ETFAU Stadiummodel Florida Atlantic by 9.1market +4.5excitement 3.0
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    28
    score
  31. 36
    Southern MissatAuburn
    Sat, Sep 12 · 7:45 PM ETJordan-Hare Stadiummodel Auburn by 12.6market -32.5excitement 2.0
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    27
    score
  32. 37
    App StateatEast Carolina
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ETDowdy-Ficklen Stadiummodel East Carolina by 10.4market -6.5excitement 5.8
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    26
    score
  33. 38
    Western Kentuckyat#2Georgia
    Sat, Sep 12 · 12:45 PM ETSanford Stadiummodel Georgia by 26.1market -40.5excitement 2.1
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    26
    score
  34. 39
    Montana StateatNevada
    Sat, Sep 12 · 10:30 PM ETMackay Stadiummodel Nevada by 11.0market +5excitement 3.5
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    26
    score
  35. 40
    Louisianaat#14USC
    Sat, Sep 12 · 11:00 PM ETLos Angeles Memorial Coliseummodel USC by 30.9market -30.5excitement 3.8
    • Projected closeness 2/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 6/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    25
    score

How the score is built

Projected closeness — 35 points
Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
Team quality — 30 points
Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
Stakes — 15 points
Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
Rivalry history — 10 points
From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
Points on the board — 10 points
The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.

There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.