Arkansas vs. Utah: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
UTAH 3 plays, 17 yds · from UTAH 35
Last play(12:47) #17 D.Curtis kickoff 65 yards to the Ark00, Touchback
ARKTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 12:47UTAHD. Dampier run for 2 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–43
- Q3 12:03UTAHD. Dampier pass to N. Bennee for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–36
- Q2 0:27UTAHD. Dampier pass to W. Parker for 7 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–29
- Q2 1:55UTAHW. Parker run for 9 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–22
- Q2 9:23UTAHD. Dampier run for 7 yds, for a TD (M. Carvalho Run For Two-point Conversion)3–15
- Q1 3:39UTAHW. Parker run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–7
- Q1 7:44ARKM. Gilbert 29 yd FG GOOD3–0
Our model, right now
What the numbers say
- ARK keeps reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives are working, the finishes are not. -1.0 pts per trip vs 7.0
- ARK is playing behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTAH is not facing the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.0
- UTAH is starting drives roughly 10 yards closer than ARK — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 32 vs own 22
- Our model prices this game live at UTAH −43.9 (100% UTAH).
- Against the pregame line (UTAH −12.5), UTAH covers in 100% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 58 vs the 55.5 line — the over hits 65%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- 1&10(12:47) #17 D.Curtis kickoff 65 yards to the Ark00, Touchback
- PassKJ Jackson 14/34, 139 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKJ Jackson 7 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecChris Marshall 1 REC, 24 YDS
- PassDevon Dampier 18/24, 261 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayshawn Parker 10 CAR, 53 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNoah Bennee 4 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
Teams up 40 with 12 minutes left — like Utah right now — went on to win 100% of the time across 276 comparable historical situations.
- Notre Dame vs StanfordW 56–23
- Florida Atlantic vs TulsaW 63–16
- Holy Cross vs ColgateW 47–7
- Memphis vs North AlabamaW 40–0
- Georgia Southern vs Ball StateW 40–3
- Q1 3:39UTAH +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Parker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Ark00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY UTA False Start (#94 M.Tauteoli) 5 yards from Ark03 to Ark08. NO PLAY
- Q2 10:59UTAH +12%
No Huddle #7 K.Jackson pass intercepted by #23 J.Bennee at Ark25 #23 J.Bennee return 1 yard to the Ark24 (#50 K.Branham)
- Q1 7:44ARK +7%
#30 M.Gilbert field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
FAQ
Who will win Arkansas vs. Utah?
Gridpex's model favors Utah with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas vs. Utah?
The model projects Utah by 12.2.
What time is Arkansas vs. Utah and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 10:15 PM ET on ESPN, at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
| ARK | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Total yards | 409 |
| 139 | Passing yards | 297 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 15 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 4-7 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/34 | Comp/Att | 19/25 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 11.9 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-46 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 24:16 | Possession | 22:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:32 ARK go for it on 4th & 11 at UTAH 30. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.64 points.
- UTAHLIVE0 plays · 0 yds · from UTAH 35 · Q4
- UTAHTouchdown11 plays · 70 yds · from UTAH 30 · Q3 2:01−7.5 EPA
- ARKDowns12 plays · 57 yds · from ARK 13 · Q3 8:15+1.0 EPA
- UTAHPunt5 plays · 10 yds · from UTAH 38 · Q3 10:57−2.0 EPA
- ARKPunt3 plays · -4 yds · from ARK 35 · Q3 12:03−1.1 EPA
- UTAHTouchdown5 plays · 75 yds · from UTAH 35 · Q3 15:00+3.6 EPA
- ARKEnd Of Half5 plays · 28 yds · from ARK 35 · Q2 0:27+3.2 EPA
- UTAHTouchdown6 plays · 64 yds · from UTAH 36 · Q2 1:28+3.0 EPA+1% WP
- ARKPunt3 plays · 0 yds · from ARK 35 · Q2 1:55−1.1 EPA
- UTAHTouchdown6 plays · 67 yds · from UTAH 33 · Q2 4:50+3.0 EPA+4% WP
- ARKMissed FG11 plays · 42 yds · from ARK 35 · Q2 9:23−6.9 EPA
- UTAHTouchdown3 plays · 24 yds · from ARK 24 · Q2 10:42+0.1 EPA
- ARKInterception3 plays · -2 yds · from ARK 29 · Q2 12:12+3.3 EPA−11% WP
- UTAHInterception3 plays · 17 yds · from UTAH 35 · Q2 13:33−0.5 EPA
- 1&10(12:47) #17 D.Curtis kickoff 65 yards to the Ark00, Touchback
- Q4 12:47UTAHD. Dampier run for 2 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–43
- Q3 12:03UTAHD. Dampier pass to N. Bennee for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–36
- Q2 0:27UTAHD. Dampier pass to W. Parker for 7 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–29
- Q2 1:55UTAHW. Parker run for 9 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–22
- Q2 9:23UTAHD. Dampier run for 7 yds, for a TD (M. Carvalho Run For Two-point Conversion)3–15
- Q1 3:39UTAHW. Parker run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–7
- Q1 7:44ARKM. Gilbert 29 yd FG GOOD3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1817, ARK Elo 1547 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -12.2 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARK | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.0 (#49) | CORE overall | +16.4 (#20) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | +10 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →