North Dakota State vs. Air Force: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
NDSU 9 plays, 75 yds · from NDSU 35
Last play(12:08) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #84 L.Conklin caught at AF08, for 41 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN
NDSUTeam statsAF
- Q3 12:02NDSUN. Hayes pass to L. Conklin for 41 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)35–13
- Q2 0:29NDSUM. Mitchell run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)28–13
- Q2 1:48AFN. Hayes pass intercepted, B. Fletcher return for 95 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli PAT BLOCKED)21–13
- Q2 5:20NDSUN. Hayes pass to M. Collins for 44 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)21–7
- Q2 8:14AFM. Hayes pass to A. Hrynciw for 29 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli KICK)14–7
- Q2 14:08NDSUN. Hayes run for 17 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)14–0
- Q1 9:54NDSUM. Mitchell run for 31 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)7–0
Our model, right now
What the numbers say
- AF is winning this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, is the story against NDSU. +1.27 vs +0.47 EPA/play
- AF is playing behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NDSU is not facing the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.8
- NDSU is starting drives roughly 13 yards closer than AF — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 38 vs own 26
Where this stands
updatingMitchell's TD swing
Myles Mitchell’s 31‑yard rush now puts NDSU ahead, swinging win chance by 18 points.
Yardage disparity
NDSU has amassed 65 yards in just over five minutes, while Air Force manages only three yards in 1:28 of possession.
Air Force’s rushing is being stuffed on 50% of attempts, while NDSU records a 0% stuff rate, reflecting early Bison dominance.
Pregame expectations
NDSU entered as a 2‑point favorite, yet Air Force’s live win probability sits at 47%, showing the game is tighter than the spread suggested.
- Our model prices this game live at NDSU −19.8 (3% NDSU).
- Against the pregame line (NDSU −2), NDSU covers in 95% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 70 vs the 48.5 line — the over hits 99%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- 2&12(12:08) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #84 L.Conklin caught at AF08, for 41 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
- 1&10(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 2 yards loss to the AF41 (#30 I.Hubert; #59 C.Barnett)−1.22
- PassNathan Hayes 14/20, 228 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMyles Mitchell 10 CAR, 53 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLogan Conklin 2 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLiam Szarka 1/3, 35 YDS, 1 INT
- RushOwen Allen 8 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecMatt Long 1 REC, 35 YDS
Teams up 22 with 27 minutes left — like North Dakota State right now — went on to win 98% of the time across 734 comparable historical situations.
- Eastern Kentucky vs North AlabamaW 32–22
- Alabama A&M vs Bethune-CookmanW 56–12
- Wisconsin vs PurdueW 52–6
- Presbyterian vs DaytonW 28–7
- Wyoming vs NevadaW 42–6
- Q2 8:14AF +19%
#18 M.Hayes pass complete deep right to #10 A.Hrynciw caught at NDSU03, for 29 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 14:08NDSU +19%
Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 17 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:29NDSU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:54NDSU +18%
Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 31 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 5:16NDSU +16%
#2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#94 L.Larson)
- Q2 1:36AF +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #5 M.Mitchell caught at NDSU28, for 5 yards to the NDSU40 (#6 B.Fletcher)
FAQ
Who will win North Dakota State vs. Air Force?
Gridpex's model favors Air Force with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Dakota State vs. Air Force?
The model projects Air Force by 6.8.
What time is North Dakota State vs. Air Force and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM ET on FS1, at Falcon Stadium.
| NDSU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Total yards | 114 |
| 228 | Passing yards | 64 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 50 |
| 16 | First downs | 3 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 1-5 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 14/20 | Comp/Att | 2/4 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 16.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 21:52 | Possession | 11:06 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:52 AF punt on 4th & 2 at AF 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
- NDSUTouchdown2 plays · 39 yds · from AF 39 · Q3 12:40−1.2 EPA+10% WP
- AFPunt3 plays · -6 yds · from AF 35 · Q3 15:00−0.4 EPA−2% WP
- AFEnd Of Half1 plays · 1 yds · from AF 35 · Q2 0:29−0.6 EPA
- NDSUTouchdown6 plays · 65 yds · from NDSU 35 · Q2 1:48+4.3 EPA+3% WP
- NDSUInterception Touchdown4 plays · 12 yds · from AF 25 · Q2 3:18+0.2 EPA+1% WP
- AFInterception5 plays · 12 yds · from AF 35 · Q2 5:20+2.2 EPA−21% WP
- NDSUTouchdown5 plays · 75 yds · from NDSU 35 · Q2 8:14+0.6 EPA+1% WP
- AFTouchdown5 plays · 72 yds · from AF 28 · Q2 10:44+2.8 EPA+18% WP
- NDSUPunt3 plays · 3 yds · from NDSU 28 · Q2 12:10+2.1 EPA+1% WP
- AFPunt3 plays · 7 yds · from AF 35 · Q2 14:08−0.9 EPA−1% WP
- NDSUTouchdown16 plays · 80 yds · from NDSU 20 · Q1 7:43+4.7 EPA+22% WP
- AFPunt3 plays · 8 yds · from AF 35 · Q1 9:54−0.8 EPA−1% WP
- NDSUTouchdown9 plays · 75 yds · from NDSU 35 · Q1 15:00+1.1 EPA+19% WP
- 2&12(12:08) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #84 L.Conklin caught at AF08, for 41 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
- 1&10(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 2 yards loss to the AF41 (#30 I.Hubert; #59 C.Barnett)−1.22
- Q3 12:02NDSUN. Hayes pass to L. Conklin for 41 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)35–13
- Q2 0:29NDSUM. Mitchell run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)28–13
- Q2 1:48AFN. Hayes pass intercepted, B. Fletcher return for 95 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli PAT BLOCKED)21–13
- Q2 5:20NDSUN. Hayes pass to M. Collins for 44 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)21–7
- Q2 8:14AFM. Hayes pass to A. Hrynciw for 29 yds, for a TD (C. Cremascoli KICK)14–7
- Q2 14:08NDSUN. Hayes run for 17 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)14–0
- Q1 9:54NDSUM. Mitchell run for 31 yds, for a TD (D. Klein KICK)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1424, NDSU Elo 1562 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -6.8 (67% to win) — 8.8 points clear of AF's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NDSU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.8 (#35) | CORE overall | -14.9 (#127) |
| +3 / -8 | offense / defense | -1 / +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →