Ohio vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsWMU
- Q4 3:11OHIONathanial Vakos 35 Yd Field Goal 33–14
- Q4 7:24OHIOKurtis Rourke 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)30–14
- Q4 13:48OHIONathanial Vakos 33 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q2 0:06OHIONathanial Vakos 55 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 1:05WMUCorey Crooms 74 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Palmer Domschke Kick)17–14
- Q2 1:50OHIONathanial Vakos 26 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 12:59OHIOSieh Bangura 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:23WMUJack Salopek 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:44OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKurtis Rourke 22/34, 264 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSieh Bangura 25 CAR, 77 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSam Wiglusz 8 REC, 76 YDS
- PassJack Salopek 17/31, 249 YDS, 1 TD, 5 INT
- RushSean Tyler 19 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecCorey Crooms Jr. 5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:05WMU +24%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 74 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
- Q2 12:59OHIO +21%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q4 13:48OHIO +21%
Nathanial Vakos 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 8:44OHIO +19%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q1 4:23WMU +18%
Jack Salopek run for 8 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
- Q3 1:19OHIO +13%
Nathanial Vakos 33 yd FG MISSED
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Western Michigan?
Ohio 33, Western Michigan 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OHIO | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 333 |
| 264 | Passing yards | 249 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 17 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 33:20 | Possession | 26:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:12 WMU go for it on 4th & 7 at WMU 17. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:11OHIONathanial Vakos 35 Yd Field Goal 33–14
- Q4 7:24OHIOKurtis Rourke 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)30–14
- Q4 13:48OHIONathanial Vakos 33 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q2 0:06OHIONathanial Vakos 55 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 1:05WMUCorey Crooms 74 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Palmer Domschke Kick)17–14
- Q2 1:50OHIONathanial Vakos 26 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 12:59OHIOSieh Bangura 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:23WMUJack Salopek 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:44OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1304, OHIO Elo 1285 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -3.2 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #106 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Western Michigan leads 31–18 · 39% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 (#89) | CORE overall | -22.1 (#125) |
| +2 / +9 | offense / defense | -17 / +5 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 1.16 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →