California vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsCOLO
- OT 0:00COLOMontana Lemonious-Craig 22 Yd pass from J.T. Shrout (Cole Becker Kick)13–20
- Q4 0:00CALDario Longhetto 34 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q4 4:30COLOCole Becker 24 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q4 10:20CALDario Longhetto 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q4 14:25COLOAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)7–10
- Q3 5:49CALJ. Michael Sturdivant 14 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Dario Longhetto Kick)7–3
- Q2 4:11COLOCole Becker 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CAL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassJack Plummer 29/52, 262 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaydn Ott 16 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecMavin Anderson 6 REC, 61 YDS
- PassOwen McCown 13/21, 104 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDeion Smith 12 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecMontana Lemonious-Craig 8 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00CAL +63%
Dario Longhetto 34 yd FG GOOD
- OT 0:00COLO +61%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 22 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)
- Q4 4:30COLO +34%
Cole Becker 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:25COLO +33%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)
- Q4 4:30COLO +29%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mason Starling for 6 yds to the Cal 31
- Q4 4:30COLO +29%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mason Starling for 10 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Colorado?
California 13, Colorado 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CAL | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 297 | Total yards | 328 |
| 262 | Passing yards | 210 |
| 35 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 29/52 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 6-75 |
| 30:06 | Possession | 29:54 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:39 COLO punt on 4th & 1 at COLO 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00COLOMontana Lemonious-Craig 22 Yd pass from J.T. Shrout (Cole Becker Kick)13–20
- Q4 0:00CALDario Longhetto 34 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q4 4:30COLOCole Becker 24 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q4 10:20CALDario Longhetto 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q4 14:25COLOAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)7–10
- Q3 5:49CALJ. Michael Sturdivant 14 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Dario Longhetto Kick)7–3
- Q2 4:11COLOCole Becker 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1147, CAL Elo 1503 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO +11.8 (23% to win) — 3.2 points clear of COLO's market line of +15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #26 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →California leads 7–5 · 33% have been one-possession games
| CAL | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.6 (#82) | CORE overall | -33.5 (#131) |
| -5 / +0 | offense / defense | -19 / +15 |
| 1.86 | points / drive | 1.23 |
| 2.39 | allowed / drive | 3.88 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →