Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsEMU
- Q4 7:14NIUHarrison Waylee 76 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick)39–10
- Q4 11:18NIUJohn Richardson 33 Yd Field Goal 32–10
- Q3 0:48NIUAntario Brown 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–10
- Q3 4:56NIUJohn Richardson 28 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 10:42EMUJesus Gomez 46 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 0:06NIUJohn Richardson 39 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 14:03NIUJohn Richardson 41 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 4:03NIUAntario Brown 47 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:34EMUAndreas Paaske 75 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:49NIUJames Ester 0 Yd Interception Return (John Richardson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassRocky Lombardi 11/15, 115 YDS
- RushHarrison Waylee 16 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCole Tucker 5 REC, 58 YDS
- PassTaylor Powell 11/23, 197 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaylon Jackson 16 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecAndreas Paaske 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNIU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:03NIU +21%
Antario Brown 47 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick)
- Q1 10:49NIU +18%
James Ester 0 Yd Interception Return (John Richardson Kick)
- Q1 10:34EMU +18%
Andreas Paaske 75 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)
- Q3 4:56NIU +11%
John Richardson 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:42EMU +11%
Jesus Gomez 46 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 14:03NIU +9%
John Richardson 41 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan?
Northern Illinois 39, Eastern Michigan 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked EMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NIU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 226 |
| 123 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 287 | Rushing yards | 29 |
| 19 | First downs | 10 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 12/16 | Comp/Att | 11/23 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 1.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 6-70 |
| 39:13 | Possession | 20:47 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:05 EMU punt on 4th & 2 at EMU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:14NIUHarrison Waylee 76 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick)39–10
- Q4 11:18NIUJohn Richardson 33 Yd Field Goal 32–10
- Q3 0:48NIUAntario Brown 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–10
- Q3 4:56NIUJohn Richardson 28 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 10:42EMUJesus Gomez 46 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 0:06NIUJohn Richardson 39 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 14:03NIUJohn Richardson 41 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 4:03NIUAntario Brown 47 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:34EMUAndreas Paaske 75 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:49NIUJames Ester 0 Yd Interception Return (John Richardson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1382, NIU Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU -4.8 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #89 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Northern Illinois leads 28–8–2 · 42% have been one-possession games
| NIU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.0 (#119) | CORE overall | -5.1 (#84) |
| -3 / +15 | offense / defense | +3 / +8 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 2.70 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -12 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →